What the Texas Polls Actually Show

The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project released its final pre-election poll on 14 October. Axios Austin reported that Democrats lead in four of six statewide races surveyed, and that all six are within the margin of error. Marist, polling separately, found a similar Senate result but a different picture for governor.

Read together, the polls agree on one thing: the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton is a toss-up, with Talarico slightly ahead in both surveys. They disagree on the governor’s race. The UT poll has Gina Hinojosa a point ahead of Greg Abbott; Marist has Abbott 4 points up, which the Texas Tribune noted was a 7-point shift toward Abbott since Marist’s September survey.

Why “within the margin of error” matters here

That said, the UT/Texas Politics Project has a reasonable track record. Axios noted that its final polls before the last three Senate elections landed within 3 points of the result; in October 2024 it had Ted Cruz up 8, and he won by 8.5. The poll’s director, Jim Henson, cautioned that polls are not predictions and small turnout changes could alter the outcome.

Why This Counts as a Historic Shift

The significance is not the size of any lead. It is the starting point. Texas has been reliably Republican in statewide contests for more than 30 years. Even in strong Democratic years, Republicans have usually won by mid- to high-single digits or more.

The closest recent call was 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Ted Cruz in a wave year for Democrats. Since then, the state moved further right: Trump won Texas by about 14 points in 2024. A poll showing a Democrat ahead, rather than merely close, is new territory for this cycle.

What is driving it: Trump, Paxton, or both

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told NBC-affiliated outlets that Trump’s unpopularity is the biggest single factor, estimating he is about 10 points underwater in Texas and about 20 nationally. Marist found 54% of likely Texas voters disapprove of him. The second factor is Paxton himself, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Senate, and who previously resolved a securities fraud case through a plea deal. Jones described “political, financial, legal, marital, ethical baggage.”

Money matters too. Federal Election Commission filings show Talarico raised $68.6 million between September 2025 and June 2026, while Paxton’s campaign raised about $9.25 million over a longer period, NBC-affiliated reports said. Outside groups are working to close that gap, including one Texas PAC that reportedly spent $131 million in 17 days.

Who is moving, and who is not

The UT poll’s internals show where the race is being decided. Talarico leads among Latino, urban, suburban and female voters; Paxton leads among rural and male voters. Independents favour Talarico 69% to 11%, a striking margin even allowing for small subgroup samples. Partisans, meanwhile, are largely locked in: 91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters said they were unlikely to change their minds. Within their own parties, Paxton is viewed favourably by 69% of likely Republican voters, well below Abbott’s 89%, which helps explain why the Senate race looks closer for Democrats than the governor’s race.

The National Picture: Approval at a Record Low

The Texas numbers sit inside a broader national trend. Fox News’s poll of 1,202 registered voters, conducted 9 to 12 October, put Trump’s approval at 36% and disapproval at 64%, a record low across both terms in that series, Newsweek reported. Other recent polls show a similar range.

The economic numbers are the weakest. In the Fox poll, 74% rate the economy negatively, 55% say inflation is not at all under control, and nearly 60% name the cost of living as their top economic concern. The FT’s poll with Focaldata found economy approval of about 25%, a record low for that series, and 57% of voters in September saying they were worse off than when Trump took office.

Inflation is not the only drag. The FT poll found approval of the president’s handling of the Iran war below 25%, down more than 7 points since May, with almost two-thirds wanting a deal as soon as possible. In September, 56% disapproved of the 50% tariff on Canadian goods, including about a third of Republicans. And 45% said the president makes it harder for Republican candidates to win in November, a sign that the midterms are being read, at least partly, as a referendum on him.

The inflation number behind the anger

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 14 October that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August, with a 0.6% monthly rise. But the composition matters. Energy prices rose 20.4% and gasoline 34.2%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6%, and grocery prices rose just 1.8%.

The monthly figures show how sudden the energy shock was. Gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone, after 3.9% in August, and the energy index rose 5.2% in the month. Core inflation also edged up, from 2.4% to 2.6% year on year, which suggests some spillover, but it remains far below the headline. For voters, though, the distinction between headline and core rarely matters: the number they see is the price on the pump sign, and that number has moved fastest of all.

The Case Each Side Is Making

Polls invite competing interpretations, and both parties have reasonable points to make.

Jones, the Rice analyst who calls Talarico an “even-money favourite” in the Senate race, also expects Abbott to win re-election, likely by a smaller margin than his 2022 win, and most other statewide races to stay Republican. He does not foresee a blue wave. Syracuse’s Grant Reeher, asked by Newsweek about the Fox poll, called it “not a big deal from where he was at recently, just a new low by a percentage point or two.” Columbia’s Robert Shapiro said it “shows how dire the situation is for Republicans.”

What people get wrong about midterm polls

The most common mistake is reading a national approval rating straight onto a state race. Texas voters split their tickets: the UT poll shows Republicans leading generic ballots for Congress and the Legislature even as Democrats lead several statewide contests. The FT poll found fewer than 70% of Trump’s 2024 voters approve of his performance, yet 80% still plan to vote Republican for the House. Dislike of a president does not automatically become a vote for the other party.

The national generic ballot points in Democrats’ favour: Fox found 54% backing the Democratic House candidate and 45% the Republican, and about 7 in 10 voters said they would vote partly to send a message to the president. But issue trust is split. Democrats lead on healthcare, gas prices and foreign policy; Republicans lead on border security, crime and immigration. In a state like Texas, where immigration and the border carry particular weight, that split could matter more than it does nationally.

The Road to 3 November

• 1994Last time a Democrat won statewide in Texas
• 2018Cruz beats O’Rourke by 2.6 points
• Sep 25 to Oct 5UT/Texas Politics Project poll in the field
• Oct 9 to 12Fox News poll: Trump approval 36%
• Oct 14CPI 3.7%; UT poll released
• Oct 14 to 15Marist and UT polls reported
• Late OctoberEarly voting period in Texas
• Nov 3Election Day, 2026 midterms

How to read the next three weeks of polls

• Check whether results are for likely or registered voters
• Double the margin of error when judging a lead
• Compare a pollster with its own last survey
• Look for 2 or more polls agreeing, not 1 outlier
• Watch gasoline prices, the 34.2% driver of CPI
• Note undecided share; 3% to 5% can swing a race
• Compare core inflation, 2.6%, with headline 3.7%
• Track turnout data in early voting reports