Indian Stock Market Trends: Your Definitive Monday Market Briefing for 23 February 2026 — Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty, Top Picks & Sector Outlook
Sensex rebounds, Nifty hints at a gap-up, GDP roars at 7.4%, and inflation sits near historic lows — but is this India’s calm before a bigger storm? Discover the hidden 2026 stock market shifts, surprise sector winners, and high-conviction picks smart money is quietly accumulating.
What if one Monday morning briefing could sharpen your entire investment week? That’s exactly what this deep-dive delivers. As Indian markets open on Monday, 23 February 2026, investors face a fascinating cocktail of mixed global cues, a resilient domestic economy, and a Bank Nifty touching lifetime highs — all while Nifty 50 battles critical resistance. Whether you’re a seasoned Dalal Street veteran or a first-time retail investor, this analysis arms you with every data point, stock pick, and sector insight you need to trade and invest with confidence this week.
Indian Market Overview: Sensex, Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty Snapshot
Where Did Markets Close Last Week?
The previous trading session (Friday, 20 February 2026) saw a solid recovery after Thursday’s brutal sell-off. The BSE Sensex rallied 316.57 points to close at 82,814.71, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 116.90 points to settle at 25,571.25. About 1,842 shares advanced versus 2,167 declines on the broader market, indicating that the rebound was selective rather than broad-based.
Over the past month, the Sensex has climbed approximately 1.11% and is up nearly 10% year-on-year, demonstrating that the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility. Nifty 50’s modest 0.39% weekly gain masks the turbulence underneath — sharp mid-week declines driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and crude oil spikes were followed by a resilient Friday bounce.
Bank Nifty: Fresh Lifetime Highs
Bank Nifty (61,172) was the standout performer of the week, closing at a fresh lifetime high on a weekly basis. Strong traction in frontline PSU banking stocks powered the rally. Traders holding long positions are advised to maintain a daily closing stop-loss at 60,626, while fresh short positions should only be considered if the index closes below that level. Immediate resistance sits in the 61,000–61,600 zone, with support between 60,800 and 60,000.
Investor Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic
Despite last week’s wild swings, the fact that Bank Nifty hit fresh highs and Nifty recouped most of its Thursday losses suggests underlying bullish sentiment. However, the advance-decline ratio remaining negative (more declines than advances) signals that mid-cap and small-cap participation is lagging. The BSE midcap index was up just 0.5%, and the smallcap index ended marginally lower.
NIFTY Today: Key Points for Monday, 23 February 2026
Here’s what you need to know about Nifty’s technical setup and expected behaviour heading into Monday’s session:
- GIFT Nifty indicates a gap-up opening, trading at 25,886 — up 320 points (1.25%) from Nifty’s Friday close.
- Immediate resistance is at the 25,700–26,000 zone; a decisive close above 26,000 could trigger fresh momentum buying.
- Key support levels are 25,300 and 25,000; any breach below 25,000 would turn sentiment decisively bearish.
- Highest call writing is at the 25,700 strike (1.5 crore contracts), suggesting strong resistance at that level.
- Highest put writing is at the 25,300 strike (1.3 crore contracts), establishing a firm floor.
- The prediction is that Nifty can move higher above 25,700 or face selling pressure below 25,300, contingent on global cues.
- All sectoral indices except IT (down 1%) and media ended in the green on Friday, with power, metals, capital goods, and PSU banks gaining 1–2%.
- Friday’s top Nifty gainers included Hindalco (+3.32%), NTPC (+2.69%), L&T (+2.34%), SBI Life (+1.82%), and Coal India (+1.78%).
- Friday’s top Nifty losers were Tech Mahindra (-1.52%), Infosys (-1.27%), Grasim Industries (-1.10%), HCL Tech (-0.96%), and Eternal (-0.85%).
BSE Sensex vs. Nifty 50: February 2026 Trends Compared
| Parameter | BSE Sensex | NSE Nifty 50 |
| Close (20 Feb 2026) | 82,814.71 | 25,571.25 |
| Day Change | +316.57 pts (+0.38%) | +116.90 pts (+0.46%) |
| 1-Month Return | +1.11% | +0.39% (weekly) |
| Year-on-Year Return | +9.96% | Comparable uptrend |
| Key Resistance | 84,000 zone | 25,700–26,000 |
| Key Support | 81,400 zone | 25,300–25,000 |
| Week’s Best Sectors | Power, Metals, Capital Goods | Power, PSU Banks, Metals |
| Week’s Worst Sectors | IT, Media | IT (-1%), Media |
| Advance/Decline | Tilted towards declines | 1,842 advances vs. 2,167 declines |
| GIFT Nifty Signal (23 Feb) | N/A | 25,886 (+1.25%) |
The Sensex’s slightly broader composition gives it modest cushioning, but both benchmarks mirror the same trend: selective large-cap strength amid broad market uncertainty.
Key Economic Drivers Shaping Indian Markets in 2026
India GDP Growth: Resilient and Accelerating
The Reserve Bank of India has projected real GDP growth of 7.4% for FY 2025–26, signaling robust confidence in the domestic economy. This is marginally higher than earlier estimates, driven by sustained domestic demand, strong services sector performance, and a revival in manufacturing activity. India’s GDP expanded at an impressive 8.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, underscoring the economy’s inherent momentum.
The signing of a landmark trade agreement with the European Union and the prospect of a trade deal with the United States are expected to further boost growth over the medium term.
CPI Inflation: Remarkably Benign
Inflation is firmly in the RBI’s comfort zone. CPI inflation for FY 2025–26 is projected at just 2.1%, with Q4 estimated at 3.2%. Excluding precious metals, core inflation pressures remain muted. This benign inflation environment gives the RBI room to maintain an accommodative stance, which is favorable for equity markets and consumer spending.
However, risks persist from geopolitical uncertainty, energy price volatility, and adverse weather events, particularly given the recent spike in crude oil prices triggered by Middle East tensions.
RBI Monetary Policy: Repo Rate Unchanged at 5.25%
In its February 2026 MPC meeting, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, following a 25 basis point cut in December 2025. Over the past policy cycle, the RBI has cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points, providing significant stimulus to the economy. The MPC retained a neutral stance, signaling that further cuts are possible if global conditions warrant.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized that economic activity remains resilient and that the transmission of past rate cuts is ongoing. For investors, this means borrowing costs are trending lower, which supports corporate earnings growth, housing demand, and consumer credit.
Unemployment and Consumer Demand
With GDP growth tracking above 7%, employment conditions have generally improved. The services sector — India’s largest employer — continues to expand, supported by digital transformation and government infrastructure spending. The combination of low inflation, declining interest rates, and rising incomes paints a constructive backdrop for consumption-driven sectors like FMCG, autos, and consumer discretionary.
Latest News Highlights Impacting Indian Markets
Here are the most significant developments heading into the week of 23 February 2026:
- Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp spike in crude oil prices last week, causing Thursday’s massive sell-off where the Sensex crashed 1,380 points and Nifty slipped to 25,400. Any de-escalation or further escalation will be the single biggest swing factor this week.
- EU-India Trade Agreement: The recently signed landmark trade deal between India and the European Union is expected to support long-term growth across IT services, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and auto components. Markets are beginning to price in the benefits of enhanced trade access.
- US Trade Deal Prospects: Ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the United States add another potential growth catalyst. A positive outcome could unlock significant upside for export-oriented sectors.
- Q3 FY26 Earnings Season: Earnings results have been mixed. IT companies reported resilient revenue growth but margin pressure from labor cost compliance changes. Banking and NBFC results showed strong asset quality improvements. Pharma delivered steady earnings backed by export demand.
- RBI’s Neutral Stance: The February MPC decision to hold rates while raising the GDP forecast sends a clear signal — the central bank sees room to be patient and data-dependent. Markets interpret this as a supportive backdrop without imminent hawkish surprises.
- Crude Oil Volatility: Any sustained move in Brent crude above $85–90/barrel would pressure India’s current account deficit and import bill, potentially weighing on rupee strength and market sentiment.
- FII/DII Activity: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers intermittently, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to provide a floor through consistent SIP-driven inflows and insurance allocations.
Foreign Indices That Influence Indian Markets
Global cues play a pivotal role in setting the tone for Indian equities. Here's where key foreign indices stood heading into Monday, 23 February 2026:
| Index | Value (23 Feb) | Change | % Change |
| S&P 500 (US) | 6,909.51 | +47.62 | +0.69% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,686.89 | +59.85 | +0.56% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 56,825.70 | -642.13 | -1.12% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 26,413.35 | -292.59 | -1.10% |
| Straits Times (Singapore) | 5,017.60 | +16.04 | +0.32% |
| GIFT Nifty | 25,886.00 | +320.00 | +1.25% |
Western markets (S&P 500, FTSE) closed in the green, providing a positive backdrop. However, Asian markets (Nikkei, Hang Seng) are trading in the red, reflecting ongoing concerns about Chinese economic slowdown and Japanese currency dynamics. The strong GIFT Nifty reading of +1.25% suggests Indian markets may open with a gap-up, aligning more with the positive US and European cues.
Top 10 Stocks to Buy on NSE/BSE for 2026
These stock picks are based on a combination of analyst recommendations, earnings visibility, sector tailwinds, and valuation metrics:
1. Bharti Airtel Ltd
Sector: Telecom | Rationale: Rising ARPU, 5G rollout, Africa diversification | Dividend Yield: 0.5% | Trigger: Digital India push and data consumption boom .
2. State Bank of India (SBI)
Sector: Banking (PSU) | Rationale: Largest PSU bank, falling NPAs, strong NIMs, massive branch network | P/E: 8–9x (attractive vs. peers) | Trigger: Credit growth acceleration and rate-cut transmission .
3. ICICI Bank Ltd
Sector: Banking (Private) | Rationale: Best-in-class asset quality, strong retail franchise | Market Cap: ₹10.13 lakh crore | Dividend Yield: 2% | Trigger: Continued market share gains from PSU banks .
4. TCS (Tata Consultancy Services)
Sector: IT Services | Rationale: Largest IT company, strong deal pipeline, consistent dividend payer | Dividend Yield: 4% | Trigger: Recovery in discretionary tech spending and AI-driven demand .
5. HCL Technologies
Sector: IT Services | Rationale: Strong in infrastructure management and digital services | Dividend Yield: 5% | Trigger: ER&D segment growth and margin stability .
6. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL)
Sector: Defence | Rationale: Government's Make-in-India defence push, strong order book | Market Cap: ₹3.36 lakh crore | Trigger: Multi-year order pipeline for indigenous fighter jets and helicopters .
7. ITC Ltd
Sector: FMCG/Conglomerate | Rationale: Diversified revenue streams (FMCG, hotels, agri, paperboards), consistent dividends | Dividend Yield: 2% | Trigger: Hotel demerger value unlocking and FMCG margin expansion .
8. Bajaj Finance Ltd
Sector: NBFC | Rationale: Market leader in consumer lending, robust AUM growth | Market Cap: ₹5.69 lakh crore | Dividend Yield: 2% | Trigger: Digital lending platform expansion and cross-selling opportunities .
9. L&T (Larsen & Toubro)
Sector: Infrastructure/Capital Goods | Rationale: India's largest E&C company, massive infrastructure order book | Trigger: Government capex push in roads, metros, defense, and green energy .
10. Biocon Ltd
Sector: Pharma/Biotech | Rationale: Growing biosimilar commercialization globally, CDMO expansion | Trigger: Regulatory approvals in US/EU and margin improvement as scale builds .
Top 10 Gainers and Top 10 Losers (20 February 2026)
Nifty 50 Top 10 Gainers
| Rank | Stock | Change (%) | Analysis |
| 1 | Hindalco Industries | +3.32% | Metals rally on supply concerns and demand optimism |
| 2 | NTPC | +2.69% | Power sector tailwinds; rising electricity demand |
| 3 | L&T | +2.34% | Strong order book and infra capex momentum |
| 4 | SBI Life Insurance | +1.82% | Insurance sector re-rating on improved persistency |
| 5 | Coal India | +1.78% | High coal demand; pricing stability |
| 6 | HUL | +1.55% | Defensive play amid volatile markets |
| 7 | Power Grid | +1.46% | Transmission infra investments accelerating |
| 8 | ONGC | +1.46% | Crude oil price spike benefits upstream producers |
| 9 | Tata Steel | +1.44% | Metal prices firming; demand recovery |
| 10 | Nestlé India | +1.0% | Consumption resilience and premiumization |
Nifty 50 Top 10 Losers
| Rank | Stock | Change (%) | Analysis |
| 1 | Kwality Walls | -3.01% | Sector-specific weakness; margin concerns |
| 2 | Tech Mahindra | -1.52% | IT sector sell-off on labor cost pressures |
| 3 | Infosys | -1.27% | Profit-taking after Q3 results; wage cost impact |
| 4 | Grasim Industries | -1.10% | Cement demand softness in certain regions |
| 5 | HCL Technologies | -0.96% | IT sector weakness across the board |
| 6 | Eternal (Zomato) | -0.85% | Growth stock de-rating amid risk-off sentiment |
| 7 | Wipro | -0.64% | Weakest large-cap IT performer; deal win concerns |
| 8 | HDFC Life | -0.62% | Insurance sector rotation toward PSU names |
| 9 | Bharti Airtel | -0.57% | Mild profit-booking after recent run-up |
| 10 | M&M (Mahindra & Mahindra) | -0.56% | Auto sector caution amid crude oil spike |
Sector Performance: India 2026
Comparative Sector Overview (February 2026)
| Sector | Weekly Trend | Key Driver | Q3 FY26 Earnings Outlook | 2026 Outlook |
| Banking & Financials | Strong ▲ (PSU banks leading) | Rate cuts, falling NPAs, credit growth | Strong NIMs, healthy asset quality | Bullish — structural credit cycle |
| IT Services | Weak ▼ (1% decline) | Labor cost pressure, cautious client spending | Revenue resilient, margins under pressure | Neutral — awaiting discretionary spending recovery |
| Pharma & Healthcare | Steady ▲ | Export demand, biosimilar pipeline | Steady earnings; specialty generics driving growth | Bullish — structural demand story |
| Metals & Mining | Strong ▲ (1-2% gains) | Supply disruptions, infrastructure demand | Improved realization, volume growth | Moderately Bullish |
| Power & Energy | Strong ▲ (1-2% gains) | Rising electricity demand, renewables push | Strong utilization rates | Bullish — multi-year capex cycle |
| Capital Goods & Infra | Strong ▲ | Government capex, defence orders | Robust order books | Bullish |
| FMCG | Steady | Consumption revival, rural recovery | Modest volume growth, premiumization | Neutral to Moderately Bullish |
| Auto | Mixed | EV transition, crude oil sensitivity | Strong volumes for two-wheelers, SUVs | Moderately Bullish |
Sector Deep-Dive
Banking is the undisputed leader in 2026. Improving asset quality, lower NPAs, better capital adequacy, and increasing credit demand from retail, MSMEs, and infrastructure make this the backbone of India's growth story. The RBI's accommodative rate cycle directly benefits banks through wider margins and higher loan disbursement.
IT Services face a near-term headwind. While digital transformation spending continues, the Q3 FY26 results from Infosys and L&T Technology Services showed that labour code-related compliance costs are squeezing margins. Revenue growth of around 10% is solid, but investors are watching for signals of discretionary spending pickup from US and European clients.
Pharma remains a defensive play with offensive potential. Rising healthcare awareness, ageing demographics, and export opportunities in specialty and complex generics make this sector attractive for 2026 and beyond.
Analysis and Recommendations: Portfolio Strategy for 2026
Diversified Portfolio Suggestions by Risk Appetite
Conservative Investors (Low Risk)
- Allocation: 50% Large-Cap Banking (SBI, ICICI Bank) + 25% FMCG/Consumer (ITC, HUL) + 15% Government Bonds + 10% Gold ETF
- Pros: Stable dividends (2–5% yield), low beta, inflation protection
- Cons: Limited upside during strong bull runs; underperformance vs. mid/small-caps in rallies
- Earnings Driver: Rate-cut transmission benefiting banks; rural consumption recovery boosting FMCG
Moderate Investors (Balanced Risk)
- Allocation: 35% Banking/NBFC (ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance) + 25% IT (TCS, HCL Tech) + 20% Infra/Capital Goods (L&T, HAL) + 10% Pharma (Biocon) + 10% Metals
- Pros: Balanced growth-and-value exposure; diversified across cyclical and defensive sectors
- Cons: IT sector headwinds may drag short-term returns; metal prices can be volatile
- Earnings Driver: Multi-sector earnings recovery, government capex, and global trade deal benefits
Aggressive Investors (High Risk)
- Allocation: 30% Mid-Cap Growth (Dixon Technologies, Polycab, KEI Industries) + 25% Capital Goods/Defence (HAL, L&T) + 20% Banking (SBI, Poonawalla Fincorp) + 15% Specialty Chemicals (Privi Specialty) + 10% New-Age Tech (Eternal/Zomato)
- Pros: Higher growth potential; exposure to multi-bagger candidates in infra, defence, and digital lending
- Cons: Higher volatility; drawdowns of 15–20% possible during risk-off episodes; liquidity risks in mid-caps
- Earnings Driver: Government defence orders, PLI scheme benefits, digital lending scale-up
Stock Recommendations for Today (23 February 2026)
Based on the technical setup, global cues, and GIFT Nifty's strong +1.25% signal, here are actionable ideas for Monday:
- Buy NTPC above ₹374 with a target of ₹390 and stop-loss at ₹370 — power sector momentum continues with strong institutional support.
- Buy Coal India above ₹425 with a target of ₹440 and stop-loss at ₹420 — high coal demand and attractive dividend yield make this a defensive buy.
- Buy AU Small Finance Bank above ₹1,028 with a target of ₹1,060 and stop-loss at ₹1,018 — banking outperformance trend intact.
- Buy Tata Power above ₹378 with a target of ₹395 and stop-loss at ₹374 — green energy capex and transmission upgrades driving re-rating.
- Avoid/Short IT stocks if Nifty IT breaks below Friday's lows — Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Wipro face continued margin pressure.
- Buy Hindalco on dips toward ₹580–590 zone — metals rally has room given supply constraints and infra demand.
- Accumulate SBI for medium-term — at 8–9x P/E, it remains the cheapest large banking franchise with the most rate-cut transmission upside.
- Watch Nifty's 25,700 level closely — a decisive close above opens the door to 26,000+.
- Keep trailing stop-losses tight given crude oil uncertainty — any Middle East escalation could trigger another sharp sell-off like Thursday's 1,380-point Sensex crash.
- Consider adding gold ETFs (5–10% allocation) as a hedge against geopolitical risks and crude volatility.
Final Thought
Monday, 23 February 2026, sets up as a potentially strong session for Indian equities, with GIFT Nifty signaling a gap-up opening of over 1.25%. But the bigger picture is even more compelling: India's economy is growing at 7.4% GDP, inflation is at a remarkably benign 2.1%, the RBI's repo rate at 5.25% still has room for further easing, and landmark trade agreements with the EU and potentially the US are poised to supercharge the growth story.
Bank Nifty at lifetime highs tells you where the smart money is flowing — into India's financial backbone. Yet, the IT sector's weakness and crude oil's unpredictability remind us that diversification isn't just advisable — it's essential.
The three numbers to remember from today's briefing: 25,700 (Nifty's make-or-break resistance), 61,000 (Bank Nifty's gateway to the next leg up), and 7.4% (India's GDP growth — among the fastest in the world).
Whether you're buying the dip in metals, riding the banking wave, or hedging with gold, this week offers opportunities across the risk spectrum. Stay nimble, respect your stop-losses, and let the data — not the noise — guide your decisions.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions. All data sourced from NSE India, BSE, RBI, Trading Economics, Motilal Oswal, and leading financial news outlets.
