Indian Stock Market Trends: Sensex & Nifty Surge in Early February 2026
Shocking Sensex-Nifty twist on Dec 19: 8.2% GDP surges, CPI crashes to 0.71%, RBI slashes repo to 5.25%—yet hidden FII trap looms? Top gainers skyrocket 2.7%, losers plummet, secret 2025 portfolio revealed. Will Dalal Street explode or crash? Unmissable insights for Indian investors!
Dalal Street opens Friday with cautious optimism as benchmark indices hold firm despite volatility. Investors eye economic resilience and fresh policy signals for directional cues.
Indian Market Overview
BSE Sensex closed at 84,481.81, down 0.09% or 77.84 points on Thursday, reflecting choppy trading with an intraday swing of over 500 points. NSE Nifty 50 settled marginally lower at 25,815.55, off 3 points after touching an intraday high of 25,902, while broader markets showed resilience with midcaps up 0.34%. Nifty Bank hovered around 59,389.95, down 0.65%, consolidating in the 58,500-60,100 range amid stock-specific moves and FII buying relief. Investor sentiment remains mixed, buoyed by DII support but wary of FII outflows and rupee weakness, with GIFT Nifty signaling a flat-to-positive open at 25,954.
Key Economic Drivers
India’s GDP grew 8.2% year-on-year in Q2 FY26 (July-September 2025), beating forecasts and accelerating from 7.8% prior, fueled by robust domestic demand and manufacturing amid U.S. tariff headwinds. CPI inflation eased to 0.71% in November 2025, below RBI’s 2-6% band for the third month, driven by falling food prices (-3.91%), granting monetary space. RBI cut the repo rate to 5.25% in early December, from 5.5%, in a unanimous move to spur lending amid low inflation and strong growth, maintaining a neutral stance. Unemployment data stays stable, but rupee depreciation raises import cost concerns, linking to cautious market moves.
Latest News Highlights
Indian markets gear up for a positive open on Friday, buoyed by softer U.S. inflation data fueling Fed rate cut hopes and firm Asian cues.
Market Open Signals
GIFT Nifty trades higher at around 25,954, up 0.31%, pointing to a steady start for Nifty above 25,850 amid global optimism. Benchmark indices closed flat Thursday—Sensex at 84,481.81 (-0.09%), Nifty at 25,815.55 (-0.01%)—after intraday swings, with midcaps outperforming (+0.34%). FIIs net bought Rs 1,172 crore, snapping outflows, while DIIs supported largecaps.
Key Corporate Updates
Airtel names new CEO, Vodafone Idea raises funds, HCLTech acquires HPE unit, BPCL and Tata Power announce deals—stocks in focus include Swiggy, Waaree Energies, ICICI Bank, Indigo. Top picks: Max Healthcare and Sagility per Bajaj Broking, amid Nifty range of 25,700-26,300. Other watches: BLS International, TCS, Infosys, Shriram Finance, Ola Electric, Lupin, Biocon.
Global and Regional Cues
Asia-Pacific advances: Nikkei 225 +1.16% to 49,568, Hang Seng +0.65% to 25,663, Shanghai +0.56%, Kospi +0.55%, ASX 200 +0.40%. U.S. inflation softening boosts sentiment; BoJ eyes 0.75% rate hike (86% odds). Thursday closers: Sensex fluctuated to 84,679-85,178 intraday, Nifty 25,860-26,005.
Impact Outlook
Nifty eyes breakout above 26,000 for 26,200-26,300 upside or drop below 25,700 toward 25,400; Bank Nifty consolidates. Sectors: IT, aviation gainers; pharma, power lag from prior session (Interglobe +2.71%, Sun Pharma -2%). Trade cautiously with supports intact.
Performance Overview
Top 10 stocks to buy on NSE/BSE for 2025 blend growth and value. Zomato leads with digital dominance (P/E ~150, PEG <1, sector tailwinds in quick commerce); Jio Financial Services eyes fintech expansion (low P/E ~20, high growth); BSE benefits from trading volumes (dividend yield 1.5%); Trent shines in retail (P/E 80, festive triggers); Indus Towers gains from 5G rollout (P/E 15, yield 2%). Others: HDFC Bank (banking stability, P/E 18), Reliance (diversified, yield 0.5%), TCS (IT recovery, P/E 25), NTPC (power demand, yield 3%), Sun Pharma (pharma exports).
Day's 10 top gainers reflect IT and aviation strength:
| Rank | Stock | % Change | Rationale |
| 1 | InterGlobe Aviation | +2.72% | Capacity addition amid festive travel |
| 2 | TCS | +1.94% | AI deals, rupee tailwinds |
| 3 | Tech Mahindra | +1.72% | Selective buying in IT |
| 4 | Infosys | +1.51% | Currency gains |
| 5 | Wipro | +1.01% | Sector rotation |
| 6 | Hindalco | +1.00% | Metal rebound |
| 7 | Dr. Reddy's | +0.60% | Pharma pipeline |
| 8 | Axis Bank | +0.48% | Loan growth |
| 9 | HCL Tech | +0.44% | Cloud services |
| 10 | Shriram Finance | +0.43% | NBFC recovery |
Top 10 losers highlight pharma and power pressures:
| Rank | Stock | % Change | Rationale |
| 1 | Sun Pharma | -2.74% | Earnings miss fears |
| 2 | Power Grid | -1.15% | Regulatory overhang |
| 3 | Asian Paints | -0.89% | Input cost rise |
| 4 | NTPC | -0.82% | Fuel price volatility |
| 5 | L&T | -0.75% | Order execution delays |
| 6 | M&M | -0.72% | Auto slowdown |
| 7 | Bajaj Auto | -0.62% | Export duties |
| 8 | BEL | -0.47% | Defence order wait |
| 9 | Eicher Motors | -0.42% | Rural demand dip |
| 10 | Apollo Hospitals | -0.25% | Margin squeeze |
Sector Performance
IT led gains over 1%, aided by rupee rebound and global deals, while Realty edged up 0.3%. Metals, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas posted weekly positives; Defence, PSU Banks (-1.6%), FMCG lagged. Fresh earnings show IT ROE >20%, banking NPA stable.
| Sector | Weekly % Change | Key Driver | Earnings Insight |
| IT | +1.0% | AI, exports | TCS Q3 beat on deals |
| Realty | +0.3% | Urban push | Sales up 15% YoY |
| Metals | +1.2% | Global demand | Hindalco margins firm |
| Banking | -0.65% | Loan growth | Nifty Bank consolidates |
| Pharma | -0.5% | Pricing pressure | Sun Pharma volumes soft |
| Consumer Goods | -0.8% | Rural slowdown | FMCG sales dip 2% |
| Auto | -0.7% | Festive fade | M&M EV shift |
Pharma faces headwinds but exports buoy long-term; banking eyes RBI cuts for NIM boost.
Analysis and Recommendations
Markets consolidate with Nifty support at 25,700-25,800 (50-day EMA), resistance 26,200; break below risks 25,400. Bluechip picks favor IT-banking mix amid inflation trends India. Actionable: Buy dips in TCS, HDFC Bank for conservative; Zomato, Trent for growth risks.
Diversified portfolios by risk:
Low Risk (Conservative): 40% Banking (HDFC, Axis – pros: stable dividends 1-2%, RBI cuts; cons: rate sensitivity), 30% IT (TCS – earnings drivers: AI), 20% Power (NTPC – yield 3%), 10% Pharma. Pros: Resilience, 12-15% returns; cons: Limited upside.
Medium Risk (Balanced): Add 20% Realty/Metals (DLF, Hindalco – infra boom). Recent Q3 beats support 18% CAGR.
High Risk (Aggressive): 30% Fintech/Retail (Jio Fin, Trent – PEG <1, festive triggers). Pros: 25%+ growth; cons: Volatility from FII flows.
Monitor market prediction India via NSE/BSE sites; stop-loss 5-7%.
Final Thought
Indian stock market trends on December 19, 2025, paint a resilient picture: Sensex and Nifty hold key supports amid 8.2% GDP growth, CPI inflation at 0.71%, and RBI repo rate at 5.25%, signaling bullish undercurrents despite volatility. GIFT Nifty's positive cue at 25,954, FII inflows of Rs 1,172 crore, and Asian gains (Nikkei +1.16%) bolster optimism, with IT and aviation leading while pharma lags.
Unique insights include Nifty's consolidation near 25,800 (50-day EMA support), Bank Nifty eyeing 60,100 breakout, and top picks like TCS (AI tailwinds, P/E 25) and HDFC Bank (stable NIM post-rate cuts) for 2025 portfolios. Diversify per risk—conservative bets on banking/IT for 12-15% returns, aggressive plays in fintech/retail for 25%+ upside—while monitoring U.S. inflation and BoJ moves.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any trading decisions.
