Indian Stock Market Trends 2026: Is This The Start Of A New Cycle For Sensex, Nifty 50 And Bank Nifty?
Indian equities are entering Wednesday, 25 February 2026 in a fragile but opportunity-rich zone—after a sharp sell-off, solid GDP growth, ultra-low inflation, and a stable RBI repo rate have created a unique mix of fear and optimism. For active investors, this is exactly the kind of backdrop where disciplined stock selection, sector rotation, and clear risk management can deliver outsized returns over the next 12–18 months.
Indian Market Overview (Sensex, Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, Sentiment)
Where Indices Stand Today
- On Tuesday’s close (24 Feb 2026), the BSE Sensex plunged 1,068–1,070 points (around 1.28%) to about 82,225–82,320, signalling a broad risk-off day.
- The NSE Nifty 50 dropped about 1.0–1.1% to the 25,424–25,459 zone, breaking below its recent support cluster.
- The Nifty Bank index is hovering near 61,047, down about 0.5–0.6% on the day, yet still close to its 52-week high of 61,764, highlighting relative resilience in banking compared to IT.
Pre-open cues for Wednesday point to a modest rebound: GIFT Nifty is trading about 0.20–0.27% higher around 25,650–25,670, indicating a mildly positive start after Tuesday’s steep fall.
What Drove The Sell-Off?
- Heavy selling in IT majors (Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys, TCS) dragged benchmarks, with some hitting fresh 52-week lows amid global tech volatility and concerns over export demand.
- Broader markets also softened: midcaps and smallcaps slipped 0.3–0.55%, signalling broad-based caution beyond frontline bluechips.
- Global risk sentiment has been unsettled by fresh US tariff headlines under President Trump and mixed commodity trends, feeding into risk-off positioning in emerging markets like India.
Investor Sentiment Snapshot
- Short term sentiment: Cautious and tactical—traders are quick to book profits on rallies, especially in high-beta sectors like IT and metals.
- Medium term sentiment: Constructive—investors still see India as one of the few large economies with >7% GDP growth, low CPI inflation, and a central bank that is not in a tightening mode.
The market setup today is one of high volatility but strong macro underpinnings—an ideal landscape for stock pickers rather than passive index chasers.
Key Economic Drivers: GDP, Inflation, RBI Policy, Jobs
India GDP Growth Trajectory
- India’s GDP is projected to grow around 7.4% in FY 2025–26, up from about 6.5% in FY 2024–25, according to MoSPI’s First Advance Estimates.
- Real GVA is estimated to expand by roughly 7.3%, with manufacturing and services driving the bulk of incremental growth, reinforcing India’s status as the fastest-growing major economy.
- Quarterly prints have been strong: GDP growth in Q2 FY26 has been reported near 8.2%, signalling robust momentum into 2026.
Implication for markets: High and broad-based growth supports earnings for cyclicals—banks, infrastructure, capital goods, autos—and underpins premium valuations vs other EMs.
CPI Inflation: Unusually Low, But Bottom Likely In
- CPI inflation for December 2025 came in at about 1.3–1.33% year-on-year, well below the RBI’s lower tolerance band of 2%.
- Retail inflation had dropped as low as 0.7% in November 2025 and is expected to hover below 4% through mid-2026, even after some base effects fade.
- The RBI itself acknowledges that the recent sub-2% inflation phase is unlikely to be permanent and has nudged its forward CPI forecasts slightly higher (FY26 CPI forecast around 2.1%).
Implication for markets: Low inflation + strong growth is a rare macro sweet spot, allowing real rates to remain supportive of equities while preserving household purchasing power, especially for consumption and financials.
RBI Monetary Policy and Repo Rate Status
- In its February 2026 MPC meeting, the RBI left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% after an easing cycle totaling about 125 bps of cuts in previous quarters.
- The stance is essentially “wait and watch”: growth is solid, inflation is low but expected to normalise with the new CPI base year and fading food disinflation.
- RBI’s growth projection for FY26 real GDP is also around 7.4%, broadly aligned with MoSPI estimates, indicating policymaker confidence in the expansion.
Implication for markets: A stable repo rate at 5.25% reduces uncertainty for banks and borrowers and keeps funding costs reasonable, which is supportive for Bank Nifty and rate-sensitive sectors like autos, real estate, and NBFCs.
Unemployment and Labour Market
- India’s unemployment rate has edged up slightly to about 5.0% in January 2026 from 4.8% in December 2025, according to PLFS estimates.
- For 2025, the annual unemployment rate stood near 4.9%, with rural unemployment around 4.2% and urban closer to 6.7%, reflecting structural gaps in urban job creation and skill mismatch.
Implication for markets: While not alarming, the uptick in unemployment suggests consumption growth may be uneven, favouring companies with strong pricing power, premium positioning, and diversified demand drivers.
NIFTY Today: Breakdown (For 25-02-2026 Setup)
Using the latest close and derivatives/technical cues, Nifty’s immediate trading setup for today looks like this:
- Spot reference zone
- Tuesday close: around 25,424–25,459 after a fall of roughly 1.0–1.1%.
- Intraday support levels
- Key supports, based on Nifty 50 futures and recent lows, lie in the 25,280–25,360 band, with stronger demand expected near 25,000–25,100 if selling intensifies.
- Resistance and supply zones
- Immediate resistance is clustered around 25,600–25,750, where multiple intraday highs and moving averages converge, and traders are likely to take profits.
- Trend structure
- Short term trend: Corrective down / sideways, after the index broke below near-term support and short-term moving averages.
- Medium term trend: Uptrend intact, with Nifty still not far from its 52-week high around 26,373, and corrections viewed as part of a rising channel.
- Sectoral leadership and laggards
- Banks and select PSU names are holding better than IT and high-beta growth names, indicating a defensive tilt even within equities.
- Volatility and positioning
- Rising volatility and a shift toward hedging via index options suggest that traders are preparing for wider intraday swings, not a smooth trend day.
- Tactical view for active traders
- Bias: Buy-on-dips towards support with tight stop-losses, avoid aggressive chase above 25,700 unless there is a clear improvement in global cues and IT sentiment.
Sensex vs Nifty 50: February 2026 Trend Comparison
Both indices have moved broadly in tandem in February, but there are nuances in sector composition and drawdown that matter for index investors.
February 2026 Trend Table (Approximate)
| Metric (Feb 2026) | BSE Sensex | NSE Nifty 50 |
| Latest close (24 Feb 2026) | 82,225.9 (down 1.28% on day) | 25,424.7 (down 1.12% on day) |
| Month-to-date trend | Mild negative bias after recent 1%+ drop; earlier gains pared by IT-led selling | Similar mild negative; failed to hold above 25,800–26,000 and retreated to mid-25,000s |
| 52-week high proximity | Below recent highs but still in upper band of 12-month range | Below 52-week high near 26,373 but still within a broad uptrend channel |
| Key draggers in Feb | Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys, TCS, L&T, HDFC Bank | Same IT names plus weakness in some consumer and infra counters |
| Relative sector tilt | More concentrated in financials, IT, large industrials | Slightly more diversified (IT, banks, autos, metals, FMCG, energy) |
| Volatility profile | High but cushioned by a few heavyweight defensives | High, with broader participation from mid and small components |
Takeaway: Nifty 50 offers wider sector diversification, while Sensex provides more concentrated exposure to large banks and IT; both are in a corrective phase in February but still anchored in a longer-term uptrend driven by macro strength.
Latest News Highlights Impacting Indian Markets
1. Sharp IT Sell-Off And Earnings Concerns
- Tech majors like Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys, and TCS fell between about 4–7% recently, with some touching new 52-week lows.
- Drivers: Weak global IT spending commentary, cautious guidance from US and European clients, and concerns about margin pressure amid wage and AI investment cycles.
Impact (point-wise):
- Immediate drag on Sensex and Nifty 50 due to heavy weight of IT.
- Sector rotation toward banks, PSU stocks, and defensives as investors seek earnings visibility.
- Valuations of IT majors are de-rating, which may eventually create long-term entry points for patient investors.
2. Global Trade And US Policy Shocks
- Fresh US tariff policy volatility and trade-policy whiplash have contributed to global risk-off mood, lifting safe havens like gold and the yen while pressuring equities.
- The rupee has seen a notable depreciation in 2025, around 4.7%, reflecting these external pressures.
Impact:
- Export-oriented sectors (IT, some chemicals, select manufacturing) face uncertainty, though a weaker rupee partially offsets revenue risk in rupee terms.
- FIIs turn more selective in EM exposure, increasing daily market volatility and gap moves.
3. Robust Domestic Macro Backdrop
- MoSPI and RBI projections of 7.3–7.4% GDP growth for FY26 and sub-2% CPI inflation provide a strong domestic cushion against global turbulence.
- The RBI kept the repo rate steady at 5.25% in the February policy, signalling policy stability.
Impact:
- Supports domestic cyclicals—banks, autos, capital goods, infra, select consumption names.
- Provides a floor for market sentiment: corrections are being viewed more as macro-unrelated and hence transitory.
4. Labour Market And Consumption Signals
- The unemployment rate ticking up to about 5.0% in January 2026 hints at some stress, especially in rural areas.
- Yet overall unemployment remains below earlier years, suggesting a still-constructive consumption outlook.
Impact:
- Mass-market discretionary consumption could see short-term softness, but premium consumption and urban formal demand remain relatively resilient.
Foreign Indices Movements Influencing Indian Markets
Global markets have been a crucial driver of Indian stock market trends this week.
Key Global Benchmarks (As Of Early 25 Feb 2026)
| Index | Latest Level | Move | Comment |
| Dow Jones | 49,174 | +0.76% | Positive close, helps risk sentiment in Asia |
| S&P 500 | 6,890 | +0.77% | Gains led by AI/tech optimism |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,864 | +1.05% | Tech rebound supports global IT mood, though India IT still lags |
| FTSE 100 | 10,681 | -0.04% | Flat, Europe cautious |
| DAX | 24,986 | -0.02% | Range-bound, little incremental cue |
| Nikkei 225 | 57,883–57,947 | +1.0–1.1% | Strong on chipmakers, lifts Asian risk sentiment |
| Hang Seng | 26,590 | -1.82% | China-related concerns, weighs on EM Asia |
| Shanghai Composite | 4,117 | +0.87% | Stabilisation in mainland China |
| GIFT Nifty | 25,654–25,673 | +0.20–0.27% | Signals modestly positive open for Nifty |
How these influence Indian markets:
- Strong US and Japan tech rallies provide a partial offset to domestic IT pessimism but have not yet fully reversed selling in Indian IT.
- Weakness in Hang Seng reflects continuing concerns about China’s growth and property sector, which can pressure EM sentiment and FII flows into India.
- Overall, global cues today lean slightly positive for risk assets, supporting the possibility of a tactical rebound in Sensex and Nifty after Tuesday’s fall.
Performance Overview: Top Stocks For 2026, Gainers & Losers
Top 10 Stocks To Buy On NSE/BSE For 2026 (Strategic, Not Intraday)
Below are illustrative bluechip/largecap ideas aligned with India’s 2026 macro theme (growth, low inflation, stable rates). These are strategic picks, not trading calls; investors must check latest valuations and consult advisers before acting. Statistics like P/E, PEG, and yields are discussed directionally, as live valuations move daily.
- HDFC Bank (Banking)
- Rationale: Dominant private lender, heavy weight in Bank Nifty; key beneficiary of credit growth and stable repo rate.
- Valuation: Historically trades at a premium P/E and P/B vs peers; recent corrections have made valuations more reasonable vs its long-term averages.
- Dividend: Moderate but consistent; story is more growth than yield.
- Triggers: Loan growth in retail + SME, NIM stability with policy pause, and improving asset quality.
- ICICI Bank (Banking)
- Rationale: Stronger RoA/RoE profile post clean-up, high-quality retail and corporate mix, major Bank Nifty component.
- Valuation: Typically trades at a discount to HDFC Bank but with improving metrics, offering a favourable risk–reward.
- Triggers: Continued reduction in credit costs, rising fee income, leverage to capex cycle.
- State Bank of India (PSU Banking)
- Rationale: Proxy for India’s public capex and broader credit cycle; improved asset quality and capital position.
- Valuation: P/E and P/B still discount PSU legacy risks, leaving room for re-rating if earnings momentum sustains.
- Dividend: Reasonable yield, attractive for income-focused investors.
- Triggers: Government infra push, stable NPAs, strong retail franchise.
- Reliance Industries (Energy, Consumer, Telecom)
- Rationale: Diversified exposure to refining, petrochem, retail, and digital; a key index heavyweight.
- Valuation: Mix of core energy cash flows and new-age digital; PEG favourable if earnings growth sustains.
- Triggers: Tariff hikes in telecom, retail expansion, potential value unlocking via listings.
- Larsen & Toubro (Infra & Capital Goods)
- Rationale: Core beneficiary of India’s infra and capex super-cycle; order book visibility high in a 7%+ GDP environment.
- Valuation: Cyclical P/E that compresses as earnings catch up; PEG attractive through the cycle.
- Triggers: Government infrastructure pipeline, private capex revival, defence and hydrocarbon orders.
- Tata Motors or Maruti Suzuki (Auto)
- Rationale: Plays on rising incomes, low interest-rate environment, and strong domestic auto demand.
- Valuation: Autos often trade at mid-to-high teens P/E during upcycles; PEG favourable when volume growth accelerates.
- Triggers: New launches, EV ramp-up, export markets, rural recovery.
- Infosys / TCS (IT Services – Accumulate On Weakness)
- Rationale: Despite current pain, they remain structural beneficiaries of global digitisation and AI-led IT spending.
- Valuation: Valuations have de-rated due to earnings downgrades; PEG improves if growth stabilises.
- Triggers: Stabilisation in US/Europe IT budgets, margin support from currency, AI-related deals.
- Bharti Airtel (Telecom)
- Rationale: Oligopolistic market, large data consumption tailwinds, scope for ARPU growth.
- Valuation: Elevated on P/E but supported by structural growth; cash flow visibility strong.
- Triggers: Tariff hikes, 5G monetisation, enterprise services growth.
- Hindustan Unilever or ITC (Consumer Staples)
- Rationale: Defensive core in any portfolio; beneficiaries of low inflation and stable demand.
- Valuation: Well-known premium multiples; suits investors seeking quality and stability.
- Dividend: Especially attractive in ITC’s case, with healthy yield.
- Triggers: Volume recovery, premiumisation, rural consumption improvement.
- NTPC / Coal India (Utilities & Energy PSU)
- Rationale: Benefit from India’s power demand growth and policy support, plus attractive dividend yields.
- Valuation: Typically trade at low single-digit/low teen P/Es and high dividend yields.
- Triggers: Capacity expansion, green energy diversification, PSU re-rating theme.
These 10 ideas can be blended into a core long-term portfolio with adjustments based on individual risk profiles.
Top 10 Gainers & Losers (Last Session – 24 Feb 2026)
Public free data gives partial lists; below is a consolidated, indicative table combining Nifty 50 and broader largecap movers referenced in recent reports. Exact prices change intraday, but the directional move and drivers remain relevant.
Top Gainers (24 Feb 2026 – Indicative Large/Large-Mid Names)
| Stock | Move Direction | Key Driver |
| NTPC | Up 1% | Defensive demand, stable cash flows, power demand growth |
| Coal India | Up 1.3% | High dividends, coal offtake strength, PSU theme |
| JSW Steel | Up 1.3% | Metal price stability, infra demand optimism |
| Hindalco Industries | Up 1.0% | Global aluminium sentiment, cost control |
| Hindustan Unilever | Up 0.8% | Defensive consumption play amid volatility |
| AU Small Finance Bank | Up 3.2% | Strong growth expectations, niche franchise |
| Vishal Mega Mart (listed entity) | Up 3.1% | Consumption theme, expansion story |
| Hitachi Energy India | Up 2.8% | Power and grid capex theme |
| NMDC | Up 2.5% | Iron ore pricing, PSU rerating bets |
| Adani Ports (gainer in some lists) | Up (exact % varies) | Trade volumes, infra and logistics narrative |
Top Losers (24 Feb 2026 – Nifty 50 / Largecap Focus)
| Stock | Move Direction | Key Driver |
| Tech Mahindra | Down about 6.6–7% | Weak IT outlook, margin concerns |
| HCL Technologies | Down about 6% | Global IT demand worries |
| Infosys | Down about 3.9–4% | 52-week low; guidance caution |
| TCS | Down about 3.8% | Profit-taking, sector-wide derating |
| Larsen & Toubro | Down about 3.6% | Infra cyclical volatility, profit booking |
| Trent | Down about 3.0% | Valuation-rich retail stock correcting |
| Bharti Airtel | Down about 2.8% | Profit-taking after strong run |
| HDFC Bank | Down about 1.4% | Banking under pressure after global cues |
| IT-heavy ETFs / baskets | Down | Reflecting broad IT sector weakness |
| Select FMCG names (outside HUL, ITC) | Down | Stock-specific factors, valuations |
These lists underline a key theme: IT is the pressure point, while utilities, PSU, and select defensives are acting as safe havens.
Sector Performance India 2026: IT, Banking, Pharma, Consumer
Sector rotation is at the heart of Indian stock market trends right now.
Sector Snapshot Table (Early 2026 Context)
| Sector | Recent Performance (Feb 2026) | Structural Outlook 2026 | Key Drivers |
| IT Services | Underperforming; major names down 4–7% in a day; some at 52-week lows | Medium-term positive but near-term clouded | Global tech spending, currency trends, AI/automation demand |
| Banking (Private) | Relatively resilient; Bank Nifty near 52-week high despite recent dip | Strong; leverage to GDP, credit cycle | Credit growth, NIMs with stable repo, asset quality |
| Banking (PSU) | Outperforming pockets; PSU themes and dividend yield support | Improving, though still cyclical | Government capex, PSU reforms, NPA management |
| Pharma | Mixed to stable; defensive bids during volatility | Positive, especially for export and specialty plays | USFDA outcomes, R&D pipeline, domestic healthcare demand |
| Consumer Staples (FMCG) | Holding relatively firm; some names gaining on risk-off days | Solid; low inflation supports margins and volumes | Rural recovery, premiumisation, input cost stability |
| Consumer Discretionary/Retail | Stock-specific; premium retail names saw some correction | Positive with income growth and urbanisation | Wage growth, credit availability, sentiment |
| Metals & Mining | Volatile; some names like JSW Steel, Hindalco gained recently | Cyclical; leveraged to global demand and China | Global commodity prices, Chinese stimulus, infra spending |
| Energy & Utilities | Outperforming, especially NTPC, Coal India | Steady, yield + growth | Power demand, policy, energy prices |
| Real Estate | Sensitive to rates, but benefits from stable repo and income growth | Constructive | Mortgage rates, urban housing demand, REIT ecosystem |
Key point: Banking, utilities, and select consumption plays look best positioned in early 2026, while IT offers potential value only for longer-horizon, staggered accumulation.
Analysis And Recommendations
1. Macro-To-Market View
- India’s macro mix—7.4% GDP growth, CPI around 1–2%, and a 5.25% repo rate—is supportive of equities through 2026.
- Recent corrections driven by IT and global risk-off moves do not alter the structural bullish story, but they do demand smarter sector and stock selection.
2. Suggested Diversified Portfolio (Illustrative)
For Conservative Investors (Capital Preservation + Moderate Growth)
Allocation example (approximate):
- 35–40%: Large private banks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank) + SBI.
- 20–25%: Consumer staples (HUL, ITC) and select consumer discretionary leaders.
- 15–20%: Utilities/PSUs (NTPC, Coal India, high-yield names).
- 10–15%: High-quality diversified conglomerate (Reliance).
- 5–10%: Pharma/healthcare majors.
Pros: Lower volatility, dividend visibility, strong balance sheets.
Cons: Lower participation in sharp tech or midcap rallies; valuations in some defensives can be rich.
For Moderate Risk Investors (Balanced Growth)
Allocation example:
- 30–35%: Banks and financials (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, quality NBFCs).
- 20%: Autos and consumer discretionary.
- 15–20%: IT majors (Infosys, TCS) with staggered buying on dips.
- 15%: Industrials/infra (L&T, capital goods leaders).
- 10%: PSU utilities/metals.
Pros: Balances growth with stability, benefits from capex and consumption.
Cons: Sensitive to global risk sentiment, particularly via IT and metals.
For Aggressive Investors (High Growth, Higher Volatility)
Allocation example:
- 25–30%: Banks (including select high-beta financials).
- 20–25%: IT, including midcap IT selectively, accumulated into weakness.
- 20–25%: Midcap and smallcap cyclical plays (metals, capital goods, select PSUs).
- 10–15%: Thematic plays (EV, renewables, digital platforms).
Pros: High upside if the global and domestic growth cycle remains supportive.
Cons: Sharp drawdowns during global corrections; requires strict monitoring and risk controls.
3. Pros, Cons, And Earnings Drivers
- Pros:
- Strong GDP growth, low inflation, stable policy = favourable environment for earnings growth and multiple expansion.
- Banks and infra stand to benefit from rising credit and capex, while consumption gains from real income growth.
- Cons:
- Global trade tensions and US policy shocks can dent risk sentiment and FII flows, especially in IT and export-oriented sectors.
- Valuations in quality names are not cheap; earnings must deliver to justify multiples.
- Earnings drivers into 2026:
- Credit growth, NIM stability, and asset quality in banks.
- Volume and margin trends in autos and consumer.
- Order inflows and execution in infrastructure and capital goods.
- Normalisation in global IT spending and cloud/AI capex.
Stock Recommendations For Today
These are tactical themes for Wednesday, 25 February 2026, meant for short-to-medium horizon traders, not guaranteed intraday calls. Always align with your own risk profile and stop-loss discipline.
- Focus On Banks On Dips (Bank Nifty Trend)
- Bank Nifty around 61,000 remains close to its 52-week high, suggesting underlying strength.
- Idea: Accumulate quality private banks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank) and SBI on further weakness with staggered buying; they are direct beneficiaries of policy stability and credit growth.
- Use IT Weakness For Gradual Accumulation, Not Leverage
- IT stocks are under pressure and can stay volatile, but leaders like TCS and Infosys are long-term compounding stories.
- Idea: Avoid leveraged longs; instead, buy small quantities on big down days with a 2–3 year view, focusing on balance sheet strength and dividend track record.
- Defensive Buys: FMCG And Utilities
- Names like Hindustan Unilever, ITC, NTPC, and Coal India have attracted flows during recent volatility.
- Idea: Use them as stabilisers in your portfolio, especially if your risk appetite is low-to-moderate.
- Avoid Overexposure To Highly Valued Midcaps After The Run-Up
- Some midcap and consumer discretionary names have corrected but still trade at elevated valuations.
- Idea: Be selective; focus on those with clear earnings visibility and healthy balance sheets; avoid chasing momentum.
- Watch Global Cues Before Aggressive Index Positions
- US, Japan, and China moves overnight can significantly influence today’s intraday direction.
- Idea: For Nifty, treat 25,280–25,360 as a key support band and 25,600–25,750 as resistance; trade small and respect stops.
- Stay Data-Driven: Track Macros And RBI Signals
- Upcoming macro releases—GDP prints, CPI releases, and the next RBI meeting—can pivot medium-term narratives.
- Idea: Adjust sector exposure (e.g., more financials and infra vs bond proxies) based on how inflation and policy expectations evolve.
Final Thought
Indian stock market trends in early 2026 are being shaped by a powerful contrast: world-class macro fundamentals at home versus choppy, policy-driven risks abroad. With Sensex and Nifty correcting from highs, Bank Nifty still near record territory, and IT stocks under pressure, disciplined investors who align with India’s 7.4% GDP growth, sub-2% inflation, and a steady 5.25% repo rate stand to benefit from this volatility rather than fear it.
If this deep-dive helped you frame your strategy for 25 February 2026—whether you’re tracking Nifty Bank trends, hunting bluechip stock picks, or evaluating sector performance in India—share it with fellow investors and add your questions or experiences in the comments so we can refine and update this daily-market-briefing style together.
