Indian Stock Market Trends 2026: What Today’s Data Signals for the Year Ahead
The top Indian stocks to watch on July 21, 2025, as global trade tensions and Q1 FY26 earnings shake the market! From RIL’s blockbuster profits to Anthem Biosciences’ IPO buzz, uncover which stocks could soar or stumble. Will banking giants like HDFC Bank outshine metals? Dive into this suspenseful analysis of market movers, global news, and hidden risks to supercharge your portfolio!
The Indian stock market is poised for a dynamic session on Monday, July 21, 2025, influenced by a mix of domestic corporate earnings, global economic developments, and geopolitical events. The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex are expected to consolidate around 25,000 and 82,600, respectively, after a volatile week driven by Q1 FY26 earnings and global trade uncertainties. Key sectors like banking, IT, metals, and renewable energy are in focus, with specific stocks highlighted for their recent performance, upcoming events, or macroeconomic catalysts. This analysis covers top stocks to watch, global and Indian news impacting the market, and the pros and cons of investing in these stocks.
Top Stocks to Watch
Based on recent market trends, corporate announcements, and analyst insights, the following stocks are expected to be in focus on July 21, 2025:
1. Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)
Sector: Conglomerate
Recent Performance: RIL reported a 78% surge in Q1 FY26 consolidated net profit at ₹26,994 crore, driven by the sale of its Asian Paints stake and robust consumer business performance. Why to Watch: Analysts expect a gap-up opening on Monday due to strong earnings and positive sentiment around its retail and telecom segments. Jio Financial Services, a subsidiary, is also in focus for its growth potential. Pros: Diversified revenue streams, strong cash flows, leadership in telecom and retail.
Cons: High valuations, exposure to global oil price volatility.
2. HDFC Bank
Sector: Banking
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 net profit rose 12% YoY to ₹18,155 crore, beating estimates despite higher provisions. The bank announced a 1:1 bonus issue and a ₹5 per share special dividend, with a record date of August 27, 2025. Why to Watch: The bonus issue and dividend announcement are likely to boost investor sentiment. However, concerns over rising provisions may cap gains.
Pros: Strong balance sheet, extensive retail network, consistent growth.
Cons: Margin pressure from stricter lending norms, FPI selling in banking stocks.
3. ICICI Bank
Sector: Banking
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 net profit grew 15.5% YoY to ₹12,768 crore, with net interest income up 11%. Why to Watch: Positive earnings and expectations of sustained retail loan growth make it a key banking stock. The private banking sector is under scrutiny due to Axis Bank’s weak Q1 results, which may impact sentiment. Pros: Robust asset quality, diversified loan portfolio.
Cons: Sensitivity to interest rate changes, competitive pressures.
4. JSW Steel
Sector: Metals
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 net profit surged 158% YoY to ₹2,184 crore, driven by a 9% increase in steel sales volume and lower input costs. Why to Watch: Strong domestic demand and operational efficiency make JSW Steel a standout in the metals sector. However, global trade concerns, including potential US tariffs on Indian steel, could weigh on the stock. Pros: High margins, growing domestic market share.
Cons: Exposure to global commodity price fluctuations, tariff risks.
5. NTPC Green Energy
Sector: Renewable Energy
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 profit rose to ₹233.21 crore from ₹80.95 crore YoY, driven by India’s renewable energy push. Why to Watch: The government’s focus on green energy and NTPC’s expansion plans position it well for long-term growth. A recent project cancellation in Assam may create short-term volatility. Pros: Aligned with sustainability trends, strong government backing.
Cons: Project-specific risks, high capital expenditure requirements.
6. Wipro
Sector: IT
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 results beat expectations, supporting IT sector resilience despite broader market weakness. Why to Watch: Wipro’s recovery post-earnings and renewed buying interest in IT stocks make it a stock to monitor. Global tech spending trends will influence its trajectory. Pros: Strong order book, global client base.
Cons: Margin pressures, competition from larger IT peers.
7. IRCON International
Sector: Infrastructure
Recent Performance: Noted for potential upside due to government infrastructure spending and railway projects.
Why to Watch: IRCON benefits from India’s infrastructure push, but execution risks and project delays could impact performance.
Pros: Strong order pipeline, government contracts.
Cons: Dependency on public sector projects, operational risks.
8. Anthem Biosciences
Sector: Pharmaceuticals/Biotechnology
Recent Performance: IPO listing scheduled for July 21, with a grey market premium (GMP) signaling a 25-27% listing pop. Why to Watch: As a contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) player, Anthem Biosciences is expected to attract investor interest post-listing. Its performance will depend on market reception and sector sentiment.
Pros: High growth potential in CRAMS, strong fundamentals.
Cons: IPO overvaluation risks, market volatility.
9. Sona Comstar
Sector: Auto Ancillary
Recent Performance: Noted for its role in the auto ancillary space, particularly electric vehicle (EV) components.
Why to Watch: Rising EV adoption and export growth in the auto sector make Sona Comstar a key player. US tariff concerns could impact sentiment. Pros: Exposure to EV growth, strong export potential.
Cons: Tariff risks, cyclical auto sector demand.
10. Hindustan Zinc
Sector: Metals
Recent Performance: Q1 FY26 results highlighted operational strength, with analysts seeing a buying opportunity after a healthy correction. Why to Watch: Strong margins and no debt position it as a dark horse in the metals sector. Global commodity price volatility remains a concern. Pros: Debt-free balance sheet, strong cash flows.
Cons: Sensitivity to global zinc prices, export tariff risks.
Review of Market Trends
The Indian stock market ended the previous week on a subdued note, with the Nifty 50 declining 0.7% to 24,968 and the Sensex closing at 82,634.48. Banking stocks faced selling pressure due to Axis Bank’s weak Q1 earnings, while IT and metal stocks showed resilience. The broader market reflected weakness, with the India VIX rising over 1%, signaling increased volatility. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold over ₹10,000 crore in equities in July, citing high valuations, but remained active in primary markets via IPOs and QIPs.
Sectoral Insights
- Banking: Mixed Q1 results, with HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank outperforming, while Axis Bank and Bandhan Bank faced challenges.
- IT: Recovery in stocks like Wipro and Tech Mahindra, driven by Q1 beats and global tech spending optimism.
- Metals: JSW Steel and Hindustan Zinc benefited from strong domestic demand and operational efficiencies, but global tariff concerns loom.
- Renewable Energy: NTPC Green Energy aligns with India’s sustainability goals, but project-specific risks persist.
- Pharma/Biotech: Anthem Biosciences’ IPO listing and strong fundamentals in CRAMS make it a sector to watch.
- Auto Ancillary: Sona Comstar benefits from EV growth but faces export-related risks.
Analysis
Domestic Factors
- Q1 FY26 Earnings: Corporate earnings remain a key driver, with mixed results in banking and strong performances in metals and IT. Analysts emphasize the importance of earnings quality for sustaining market momentum.
- Government Initiatives: The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and infrastructure spending continue to support sectors like manufacturing, renewable energy, and infrastructure.
- Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is managing liquidity and bond sales, with a focus on stabilizing yields. This could impact banking and NBFC stocks.
- Consumer Sentiment: Inflation and high interest rates are curbing discretionary spending, affecting FMCG and retail sectors. However, staple sectors remain resilient.
Global Factors
- US-India Trade Deal: Speculation around a potential trade deal could boost Indian equities, particularly export-oriented sectors like metals and auto ancillaries. However, proposed US tariffs (e.g., 50% on copper) introduce uncertainty.
- Global Markets: Asian markets (Kospi, Nikkei, SSE Composite, Hang Seng) declined, and US markets saw losses amid sticky inflation and fading hopes of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Geopolitical Tensions: The Pahalgam attack and Trump’s ceasefire remarks may influence defense and diplomatic discussions, potentially impacting defense stocks.
- Commodity Prices: Brent crude fell to $68.55 per barrel, supporting softer oil prices for India but pressuring energy stocks.
Indian News Impacting the Market
- IPO Activity: A busy IPO week, with Anthem Biosciences listing and nine new IPOs opening, could divert liquidity from secondary markets.
- Air India Crash Investigation: The recovery of black boxes from the June 12 crash may affect investor sentiment toward InterGlobe Aviation.
- Infrastructure Developments: Updates on Namma Metro and Kazipet Coach Factory highlight government focus on infrastructure, benefiting companies like IRCON.
- Banking Sector: RBI’s intervention in Axis Bank’s Q1 bad loan spike and SEBI’s warning on trading scams underscore regulatory oversight, impacting banking stocks.
Global International News Impacting the Market
- US Economic Data: Strong US retail sales and sticky inflation (Core CPI +2.9% YoY) reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially leading to FPI outflows from India.
- US Tariffs: Proposed tariffs on Indian exports (e.g., steel, solar panels) could pressure companies like JSW Steel, Waaree Energies, and Sona Comstar.
- Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s drone strikes on Ukraine and EU sanctions on India’s Nayara refinery highlight global supply chain risks, impacting energy and metal stocks.
- Tech Sector: Nvidia reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable company signals strong global tech sentiment, potentially benefiting Indian IT stocks like Wipro.
Pros and Cons of Investing
Pros
- Strong Domestic Fundamentals: India’s macroeconomic outlook remains robust, supported by easing inflation, a healthy monsoon, and government initiatives like PLI.
- Sectoral Opportunities: Renewable energy, infrastructure, and IT sectors offer long-term growth potential due to government support and global demand.
- Earnings Momentum: Companies like RIL, HDFC Bank, and JSW Steel reported strong Q1 FY26 results, signaling resilience in key sectors.
- IPO Opportunities: Anthem Biosciences and other IPOs provide exposure to high-growth sectors like biotech.
Cons
- Valuation Concerns: High valuations in Indian equities, with the Nifty trading at a 60% premium to the Hang Seng, deter FPIs.
- Global Trade Risks: Potential US tariffs and geopolitical tensions could disrupt export-oriented sectors like metals and auto ancillaries.
- Volatility: Rising India VIX and FPI selling indicate short-term market uncertainty.
- Sector-Specific Risks: Banking faces margin pressures, and renewable energy projects carry execution risks.
Final Thought
The Indian stock market on July 21, 2025, will be shaped by a mix of corporate earnings, global trade developments, and domestic policy initiatives. Stocks like RIL, HDFC Bank, and JSW Steel are poised for action due to strong fundamentals, while NTPC Green Energy and Anthem Biosciences offer growth potential in emerging sectors. Investors should remain cautious of global tariff risks, FPI outflows, and high valuations. A balanced approach, focusing on quality earnings and long-term growth sectors, is advisable amidst current market volatility.
