Indian Stock Market Trends: Sensex & Nifty Rebound Amid Budget Volatility – February 3, 2026 Analysis
Will the Nifty 50’s bullish run finally stall, or will Bank Nifty’s surging numbers spark fresh highs? Explore surprise sector winners, shock losers, and the hidden data drivers behind Tuesday’s jaw-dropping market moves. Dive in, uncover top stocks poised for dramatic growth, see what could change by evening, and find smart strategies experts aren’t sharing elsewhere. Ready for twists, news-driven surprises, and portfolio moves that could redefine 2025? Read the suspenseful story unfolding in India’s markets now.
The Indian stock market finds itself at an inflection point this Tuesday, 7th October 2025. With major indices like BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty 50, and Nifty Bank shattering previous records and investors chasing the next winning sectors, today’s trading session offers a whirlwind of new opportunities and challenges. Key catalysts, including fresh GDP data, CPI inflation updates, RBI’s stable repo rate stance, and surging sectoral momentum in banking and IT stocks, have infused optimism into the market. This blog distills actionable knowledge for traders and long-term investors alike, revealing top stocks, major gainers/losers, and portfolio strategies anchored in the very latest numbers and news.
Indian Stock Market Overview: 07-10-2025
Sensex, Nifty 50 & Nifty Bank Performance
- The BSE Sensex climbed to 81,790, up nearly 582 points (0.72%) in the last session. The NSE Nifty 50 surged to 25,078, up 183 points (0.74%), breaking the psychological 25,000 barrier, which signals bullish sentiment persists.
- Bank Nifty rallied to 56,105, marking its fifth straight session in the green. This index’s strength is led by robust updates from private banks—HDFC, Kotak Mahindra, and Axis Bank captured top gains.
- Momentum was especially pronounced in IT (up 2%+), financials, and consumer-linked sectors. Metals, FMCG, and pharma saw profit-booking, but the advance/decline ratio stayed favorable for bulls.
Short-Term Trend Analysis
- Market structure remains constructively bullish as indices consolidate near all-time highs, with moving averages painting a positive technical picture.
- Immediate Nifty 50 support stands at 25,018–24,900; resistance is pegged at 25,150–25,450. A close above resistance may drive further rally towards 25,400–25,800.
- For Nifty Bank, holding above 56,000 triggers fresh upside toward 57,000+ in the short term.
Economic Indicators Shaping Today’s Market
GDP Growth
- India’s Q2FY26 GDP growth estimate hovers around 6.7–7.2%, anchored by robust domestic consumption, improving exports, and resilient corporate earnings. Services, banking, and financials are fueling macro momentum.
CPI Inflation
- Headline CPI inflation moderated to 4.6% in September 2025, well within RBI’s 2–6% tolerance. Food inflation saw a mild uptick but core inflation remains controlled, giving policymakers leeway for growth-focused reforms.
RBI Repo Rates
- RBI maintained the benchmark repo rate at 6.50% in its latest policy meeting, prioritizing liquidity and supporting credit growth for core sectors like MSMEs, infrastructure, and housing. Stable rates bolster positive sentiment in banks and NBFCs.
Unemployment
- India’s unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in September 2025, indicating steady job creation in financial services, IT, manufacturing, and green energy. Improved labor participation adds tailwind for consumption and equity investing.
Latest News Impacting Indian Equity Markets
- The government recently rationalized CGHS medical procedure rates, delivering nearly 6% gains for hospital stocks and healthcare portfolios.
- Foreign institutional investors continue net-selling, but domestic institutions—especially retail—absorb supply, ensuring stability.
- Q2FY26 earning season is kicking off, with IT majors like TCS reporting results on October 9th—a key sector to monitor for volatility and upside.
- Regulatory measures easing capital market access for banks are spurring rallies across financial stocks.
Top NSE/BSE Stocks to Buy Today (Tuesday, 07-10-2025)
Below are the top 10 stocks to buy, selected for optimal valuation, growth, sector leadership, dividend yield, and positive news flow:
| Stock Name | Sector | P/E Ratio | PEG | Dividend Yield (%) | Growth Potential | Latest News / Earnings Update | Reasoning / Risk |
| HDFC Bank | Banking | 18.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | High | Strong Q2 update | Stable, market leader; banking reforms positive. Some regulatory risk. |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | Banking | 24.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | High | Healthy loan growth | Private sector, strong deposits growth. Volatile FII inflows. |
| Axis Bank | Banking | 21.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | Moderate | Aggressive expansion | Excellent results, retail loan focus. Sector-linked risks. |
| TCS | IT Services | 32.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | High | Q2 earnings on Oct 9 | Defensive IT play, high cash reserves. Dollar volatility. |
| Infosys | IT Services | 29.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | Moderate-High | Stable earnings outlook | Leading tech exporter, solid US contracts. Near-term IT sector headwinds. |
| Bajaj Finance | NBFC/Finsvcs | 38.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | Exceptional | Expansion into digital lending | Rapid growth, digital push. Vulnerability to credit risk. |
| Maruti Suzuki | Auto | 24.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | High | New EV launches | EV & hybrid adoption leader. Raw material swing risk. |
| Tech Mahindra | IT Services | 27.7 | 1.25 | 1.1 | Strong | Q2 shows robust margins | Quality tech play, cloud focus. Sector rotation risk. |
| Ultratech Cement | Infra/Cement | 23.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | Good | New plant commissioning | Infra boost, margin expansion. Cyclical downturn exposure. |
| Asian Paints | Consumer Goods | 51.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | High | Strong festival demand | Consumption pick-up, festive demand. Price war risk. |
Each pick balances valuation, sectoral momentum and news flow; investors should monitor quarterly earnings, volatility, and policy changes for risk management.
Top Gainers & Losers: 07-10-2025
| Gainers | Price (₹) | Change (%) | Reason |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 2,108 | +2.17 | Strong Q2 update |
| Axis Bank | 1,183 | +2.03 | Positive sector movement |
| Tata Steel | 173.29 | +3.45 | Metal sector rebound |
| Power Grid | 288.65 | +2.85 | Infra capex, utility demand |
| Max Healthcare | 1,137.00 | +6.35 | Medical rate reforms |
| Losers | Price (₹) | Change (%) | Reason |
| Coal India | 383.9 | -1.18 | Profit booking, regulatory overhang |
| Eicher Motors | 6,935 | -1.23 | Volatile auto sector, profit taking |
| Tech Mahindra | 1,398 | -1.27 | IT sector headwinds, consolidation |
| Max Healthcare | 1,070 | -3.88 | News-driven volatility and profit taking |
Sectoral Analysis & Portfolio Strategy
Banking & Financials
- Banks are leading markets, thanks to RBI’s steady rate policy and healthy earnings. Both private sector banks and select NBFCs like Bajaj Finance show attractive growth and stability.
IT & Technology
- IT indices have rebounded with positive expectations from Q2 results. TCS, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra offer defensive bets with exposure to global digital spending—but monitor post-earnings volatility.
Consumer Goods & Autos
- Consumption demand is rising ahead of festival season. Asian Paints and Maruti Suzuki, riding on new launches and festive momentum, offer above-average growth. Keep an eye on input cost inflation and manufacturer incentives.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
- CGHS medical rate reforms have fueled hospital stock gains; Max Healthcare and Apollo Hospitals are in focus but be wary of profit-booking after large moves.
Metals, Infra & Energy
- Metals show signs of correction after a strong rally; Tata Steel and Power Grid remain fundamentally robust but susceptible to cyclical reversals.
Evaluating Risks
- Volatility: Nifty’s trend remains bullish but shows muted volatility (ATR 204, ADX 22). Overbought signals in oscillators caution against fresh long trades at resistance.
- FIIs vs DIIs: Persistent foreign investor selling could trigger short-term dips, but local buying is steady.
- Sector Rotation: Sudden moves from IT to cyclicals or vice versa may create whipsaw situations. It’s vital to rebalance sector exposures regularly.
- Regulatory & Policy Shifts: RBI’s stances and fiscal reforms can reshape sector attractiveness overnight.
Model Portfolio for October 2025
A diversified equity portfolio suggestion, factoring in growth, stability, and sector trends:
| Sector | Allocation (%) | Core Holdings |
| Banking/Finance | 30 | HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance |
| IT Services | 20 | TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra |
| Consumer Goods | 15 | Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever |
| Auto | 10 | Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors |
| Pharma/Healthcare | 10 | Max Healthcare, Apollo Hospitals |
| Infra/Energy | 10 | Power Grid, Ultratech Cement |
| Metals | 5 | Tata Steel |
Rebalance allocations monthly based on performance, news flows, and index moves for optimal outcome.
Final Thought
Tuesday, 7th October 2025 ushers in a promising outlook for Indian equities, with Nifty50, Bank Nifty, and sector leaders fueled by supportive economic data, RBI’s prudent rate policy, and resilient corporate earnings. As benchmarks near historic highs, a disciplined focus on sector performance, valuation metrics, and news catalysts will be essential for sustained success. By mixing blue-chip financials, high-growth IT, and consumer plays with select defensive picks in healthcare and infra, investors can harness the best of India’s growth story while guarding against shocks. Stay updated, review positions, and act swiftly—because in 2025’s markets, fortunes are made by those who anticipate, not react.
Disclaimer: This professional analysis is for informational purposes and reflects the latest publicly available data. Investment decisions should consider individual objectives and may benefit from consultation with a registered financial advisor.
