Indian Stock Market Trends 2026: Will Sensex & Nifty Rebound from Global Shocks on March 9?
US-India Trade Deal Slashes Tariffs to 18%—Sensex Explodes 2,000+ pts!
Is Nifty’s 25,728 surge just the start? GDP at 7.4%, RBI steady—defence stocks skyrocket, but metals crash. What’s next for your portfolio on Feb 4? Discover hidden gems & pitfalls before the next twist!
Indian stock market trends in early February 2026 show a strong bullish rebound, with BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 hitting fresh highs amid US-India trade optimism and easing inflation pressures. Investors are eyeing sustained growth as GDP forecasts remain robust at around 7.4% for FY26.
Indian Market Overview
BSE Sensex closed at 83,739 points on February 3, 2026, marking a sharp 2.54% gain driven by broad-based buying in infra and defence stocks. NSE Nifty 50 rose 2.55% to 25,728, reflecting renewed investor sentiment post recent volatility.
Bank Nifty hit a record high of 61,764 before profit booking, ending up 1,400 points with support at 59,750. Investor sentiment turned positive, fueled by FII inflows and expectations of RBI rate stability at 5.25%.
Key Economic Drivers
India’s GDP growth is projected at 7.4% for FY 2025-26, up from 6.5% last year, supported by manufacturing and services surges. CPI inflation hovers low around 4-4.5%, aided by food price cooling and potential new CPI series in February.
RBI repo rate stands at 5.25% post recent cuts, with analysts like BNP Paribas eyeing one more 25bps trim amid supportive liquidity. Unemployment data shows rural improvement via budget spends, linking to market upticks in consumption stocks.
NIFTY Today in Detail
- Nifty 50 opened gap-up on February 3, touching 25,700+ amid US trade deal buzz.
- Key supports at 25,500; resistance near 26,200 for February 4 session.
- Advance-decline ratio favored bulls with 41 advances vs 59 declines in Nifty 100.
- Volatility dipped sharply, enabling broad rally led by IT and autos.
- GIFT Nifty signals mild gap-down at 25,779 for February 4 open.
BSE Sensex vs Nifty 50 Trends February 2026
| Date | BSE Sensex Close | % Change | NSE Nifty 50 Close | % Change | Key Driver |
| Feb 1 | 81,666 | +1.17% | 25,088 | +1.06% | Infra gains, RIL rally |
| Feb 2 | 81,700 (est.) | +0.04% | 25,100 (est.) | +0.05% | Mixed globals |
| Feb 3 | 83,739 | +2.54% | 25,728 | +2.55% | US-India trade deal |
| YTD Feb | +6.56% | – | +8.38% | – | Domestic buying offsets FII pullout |
Sensex lagged Nifty slightly YTD due to heavier PSU weightage, but both indices rebounded over 4% weekly.
News Highlights (as of Feb 4, 2026)
Fresh developments from February 3-4 dominate Indian markets, with the US-India trade breakthrough fueling the massive rally.
- US-India Trade Deal: President Trump announced a bilateral pact on Feb 2-3, slashing US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% (25% reciprocal + 25% punitive for Russian oil) to 18% effective immediately; India halts Russian crude buys, pledges $500B+ US imports and zero tariffs on US goods – sparked 2,000+ pt Sensex surge, boosting IT/pharma/auto exports.
- Budget FY27: FM Sitharaman hiked capex to ₹12.2 lakh Cr (+9% YoY), defence up 21% to ₹6 lakh Cr; fiscal deficit targeted at 4.3% of GDP (from 4.4%), aided by ₹3.8T RBI dividend – infra/defence positives offset rising bond yields (6.5-6.7%).
- RBI Policy Stance: Feb MPC (mid-Feb) likely neutral hold at 5.25% repo; post-125bps 2025 cuts, pause to assess new CPI (Jan data Feb 12) and GDP revisions amid rising inflation from 0.71% lows – liquidity ops prioritized.
- FII Flows Mixed: Feb 1-3 net FII sell ₹1,860 Cr (buys ₹43,449 Cr, sells ₹40,633 Cr? wait, data shows net positive mtd ₹2,815 Cr FII per NSE); DIIs net buy ₹2,778-2,412 Cr daily, propping small/midcaps +2.6-2.7%.
- Corporate Earnings: TCS/Infosys Q4 previews mixed – TCS steady, Infosys PAT up 8% YoY but misses (₹6,128 Cr), revenue +2.8% QoQ to ₹26,311 Cr; FY26 guidance 0-3% CC growth, margins 20-22%; autos (Bajaj) shine on rural/EV demand.
These catalysts propelled benchmarks higher; monitor GIFT Nifty for Feb 4 open (25,779).
Foreign Indices Movements Influencing Indian Markets (Feb 3-4, 2026)
Global markets provided mixed but largely supportive cues for Indian open on Feb 4, with Asia rebounding post-US trade optimism spillover.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): Surged 3.92% to 54,721 on Feb 3 close (from 52,746 prior), hitting all-time highs on tech/financials rally; early Feb 4 session mildly down -1.02% (-558 pts) to 54,162 at 09:04 JST, aiding EM rotation sentiment.
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Edged down 0.27% to 26,704 on Feb 3 (prior slips 2.2% to 26,776); China stimulus hopes tempered property/tech selling – up 1.35% monthly, positive for India China-linked trade.
- Straits Times Index (Singapore): +1.06% on Feb 3, tracking regional recovery; supports ASEAN-India flows.
- KOSPI (South Korea): Nearing 5,000 (up 71% YTD est.), AI/defence surge to potential 6,000; strong gains spilled positivity to Indian semis/defence stocks.
- Dow Jones / US Futures: Poised for catch-up (+0.57% Dow futures est.); prior Wall Street gains (S&P +0.54%, Dow +1.05%) on Palantir beats lifted India via FIIs and value rotation.
- Prior Pressure Reversal: Weak Asian close Feb 2 (Nikkei -1.08%/52,746, Hang Seng -2.2%) weighed early Feb India, but US-India deal reversed to +2.5% rally on Feb 3.
GIFT Nifty at 25,779 signals flat-mild down Indian open, but positive globals favor bulls above 25,500 support.
Performance Overview
Top 10 Stocks to Buy on NSE/BSE for 2026
- HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics): P/E 30, PEG 1.2, 1% yield; defence exports +20%, order book ₹94k Cr.
- BEL (Bharat Electronics): P/E 45, PEG 1.5; radars/AI +15%, govt mandates.
- TCS: P/E 28, 2% yield; AI/cloud deals, steady 10% growth.
- HDFC Bank: P/E 18, 1.2% yield; loan book expansion post-merger.
- ICICI Bank: P/E 19; retail lending boom, ROE 18%.
- ITC: P/E 25, 3% yield; FMCG diversification reduces cig reliance.
- Coal India: P/E 8, 7% yield; output spike +8% profits.
- Bajaj Auto: P/E 22; EV/rural push, exports strong.
- Trent: P/E 90; retail expansion, Zara-like growth.
- Apollo Hospitals: P/E 70; healthcare capex, insurance penetration.
Day’s Top 10 Gainers (Feb 3, NSE/BSE)
On February 3, 2026, amid the overall market rally (Nifty +2.55%, Sensex +2.54%), select stocks bucked the trend due to profit booking and sector-specific pressures.
| Rank | Stock | % Gain | Price (₹) | Analysis |
| 1 | BOSCHLTD | +3.10 | 37,740 | Auto ancillaries rally on exports |
| 2 | BAJAJ-AUTO | +1.04 | 9,595 | Rural demand, EV launches |
| 3 | OFSS | +1.19 | 7,826 | IT services rebound |
| 4 | EICHERMOT | +3.29 | 7,215 | Premium bikes surge |
| 5 | HEROMOTOCO | +2.49 | 5,763 | Volume growth |
| 6 | HAL | +3.04 | 4,470 | Defence orders |
| 7 | CUMMINSIND | +1.80 | 4,166 | Industrial recovery |
| 8 | TCS | +1.76 | 3,225 | Q4 beats |
| 9 | HDFCAMC | +3.93 | 2,671 | AUM growth |
| 10 | ASIANPAINT | +1.00 | 2,426 | Urban demand |
Top 10 Losers (Feb 3, NSE/BSE)
| Rank | Stock | % Loss | Price (₹) Close | Analysis |
| 1 | L&T | -4.69 | 3,286 | Infra capex delays, high valuations; low of ₹3,270 |
| 2 | Tata Consumer Products | -3.07 | 1,037 | FMCG slowdown fears, low of ₹1,033 |
| 3 | Hero MotoCorp | -2.98 | 4,271 | Profit booking post sales rise; high ₹4,430 |
| 4 | Coal India | -2.88 | 374 | Commodity price dip, high volumes |
| 5 | Bharat Electronics (BEL) | -2.84 | 274 | Defence valuation stretch after rally |
| 6 | Varun Beverages | -3.20 | 451 | Beverages sector caution, prior close 466 |
| 7 | Godrej Consumer Products | -2.04 | 1,146 | Consumer slowdown, prior 1,170 |
| 8 | Blue Star | -1.10 | 1,818 | AC demand wait, prior 1,838 |
| 9 | Bharat Dynamics | -1.50 | 1,700 (est.) | Defence profit taking |
| 10 | Tech Mahindra | -0.44 | 1,500 (est.) | IT mild underperformance |
These losers were outliers in a broad rally led by trade deal optimism; metals/PSUs also lagged on China/yield fears. Data from NSE/BSE live stats.
Sector Performance India 2026
| Sector | YTD % Change | Key Trigger | Earnings Note |
| IT | +5% | TCS/Infosys Q4, AI deals | |
| Banking | +3% | Nifty Bank record, loan growth | ROA improving |
| Pharma | +4% | Sun Pharma +4.56%, exports | USFDA nods |
| Consumer Goods | +2% | HUL/Asian Paints steady | Rural spend up |
| Metals/PSU | -3% | China slowdown, yields | Weak Q3 |
| Auto | +6% | Bajaj/Eicher volume spike | EV shift |
IT led gains on Feb 3; PSU banks/metals dragged.
Analysis and Recommendations
Markets eye 26,000 Nifty on trade tailwinds, but watch 25,500 support. Diversify: Conservative (HDFC Bank, ITC 60%); Moderate (TCS, HAL 30%); Aggressive (Trent, BEL 10%).
Pros/Cons Portfolio: Pros – 15% CAGR potential, dividends; Cons – Geo risks, valuations stretch. Earnings drivers: Defence budget, GDP 7.4%.
Stock Recommendations for Today (Feb 4, 2026)
Pre-open GIFT Nifty at 25,779 signals flat-mild down amid mild Asian pullback, but hold above 25,500 favors bulls targeting 26,000. Actionable picks blending technicals, budget tailwinds, and momentum post-Feb 3 rally.
- Buy ICICI Bank >₹1,350: CMP ₹1,334; target ₹1,750 (31% upside); strong retail/franchise, RoA 2.3% FY27E; stop ₹1,300. Motilal Oswal top pick.
- Buy HAL >₹4,500: CMP ₹4,470; target ₹4,800; defence capex +21%, order book surge; stop ₹4,300. Budget heavyweight.
- Buy BPCL >₹375: CMP ₹374; target ₹395; range breakout, volumes high; RSI bullish; stop ₹363. Chandan Taparia pick.
- Buy APL Apollo Tubes >₹2,050: CMP ₹2,047; target ₹2,350 (15%); infra capex beneficiary; stop ₹1,950.
- Accumulate TCS >₹3,250: CMP ₹3,225; target ₹3,400; IT recovery post-Q4, AI deals; stop ₹3,150.
- Buy Nifty 25,700 CE: If holds 25,700 (high put writing); target 25,800-26,100 resistance; stop below 25,553 close.
- Bank Nifty Long >₹59,750: CMP 60,041; target 60,500-60,750; support 59,700 (high put); stop 59,682 close.
- Watch RVNL >₹550: Railway infra boost; target ₹600; avoid if <₹530.
- Avoid Metals/TechM: Weak below ₹1,164 (360ONE pivot); downside to 25,400 if Nifty slips.
- Hedge: Nifty PUT 25,500 for protection if gaps down; key support zone.
Risk: Geo tensions, yields; diversify 2-3% portfolio allocation. Data from Motilal Oswal, Spider Software, NSE OI.
Final Thought
The Indian stock market’s explosive Feb 3 rally—Sensex soaring 2.54% to 83,739 and Nifty 50 climbing 2.55% to 25,728—signals robust resilience amid a 7.4% GDP growth trajectory for FY26 and CPI inflation stabilizing at 4-4.5%. This surge, the largest single-day gain in months, was turbocharged by the landmark US-India trade deal slashing tariffs to 18%, unlocking export potential in IT, pharma, and autos, alongside Budget FY27’s ₹12.2 lakh Cr capex hike (defence +21%) and RBI’s steady 5.25% repo rate stance.
Key takeaways: Domestic DIIs offsetting FII volatility propped small/midcaps +2.6-2.7%, while sectors like defence (HAL, BEL) and banking (ICICI, HDFC) lead the charge. Nifty eyes 26,000 if holds 25,500 support; Bank Nifty tests 60,750. Unique insight: KOSPI’s YTD surge spilling to EMs amplifies India’s bull run. Investors, what’s your top pick for Feb 4? Share below and stay diversified!
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Disclaimer: This analysis on Indian stock market trends is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Markets are volatile; past performance isn’t indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
With over 15 years of experience in Banking, investment banking, personal finance, or financial planning, Dkush has a knack for breaking down complex financial concepts into actionable, easy-to-understand advice. A MBA finance and a lifelong learner, Dkush is committed to helping readers achieve financial independence through smart budgeting, investing, and wealth-building strategies, Follow Dailyfinancial.in for practical tips and a roadmap to financial success!
