Indian Stock Market Trends: Monday Morning Briefing
Sensex climbs, Nifty nears record highs — but hidden under the roar lies an unexpected twist: inflation plunges to 8‑year lows, silver ETFs tank, and renewable stocks surge. Discover what’s really moving India’s markets on 17 Oct 2025 — and which 10 stocks could define Diwali trading.
As markets open this Friday, 17 October 2025, investors are watching closely after a strong bull run dominated the Dalal Street through the week. With Nifty 50 nearing its 26,000 resistance level, Sensex hitting four-month highs, and major macroeconomic indicators showing resilience, the sentiment remains decisively optimistic. However, global volatility and valuation pressures call for a strategic, diversified approach.
Indian Stock Market Overview
On Thursday, both benchmark indices — BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 — closed with solid gains. The Sensex rose 862 points or 1.04% to close at 83,467.66, while the Nifty 50 gained 261.75 points or 1.03% to finish at 25,585.30. The Bank Nifty soared past 57,400, marking a 1.1% surge, as private banking heavyweights continued to lead earnings momentum.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers, adding ₹997 crore worth of equities, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased approximately ₹4,076 crore, keeping liquidity strong.
Global Cues and Market Sentiment
Overnight weakness in US equities dampened Asian sentiment on Friday morning, with Wall Street indices closing lower due to renewed concerns about regional banks and global trade. As of early trading Friday, Gift Nifty futures were slightly negative at 25,611, suggesting a muted opening for Indian equities.
Asian peers like Nikkei and Hang Seng slipped by around 0.3%, while Kospi bucked the trend and rose about 1%.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
India’s GDP Growth
India’s GDP expanded at 7.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 7.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting robust consumption and investment activity. The RBI projects FY2025-26 growth at 6.8%, supported by stable domestic demand, investments, and moderating inflation.
Inflation Trends
Retail inflation cooled drastically to 1.54% in September 2025, a 99-month low driven by deflation in food prices (at -2.28%). The CPI easing well below the RBI’s comfort zone indicates strong disinflationary tailwinds, opening up possibilities for future rate cuts if the trend continues.
RBI Repo Rate and Policy Stance
During its October 2025 meeting, the RBI held the repo rate at 5.50%, maintaining a neutral stance. The central bank sees inflation remaining between 2%–3%, comfortably within the target band, implying that monetary conditions are already accommodative.
Employment Data
India’s unemployment rate has continued to decline, reaching 5.1% in August 2025 from 5.2% in July, signaling steady labor market improvement. Urban unemployment dropped to 6.7%, reflecting recovering service-sector hiring.
Nifty50 and Bank Nifty Outlook
The Nifty50 broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern earlier this week and now looks poised to test 25,700–26,000 zone, with support around 25,300–25,400. Analysts anticipate a bullish undertone with possible near-term consolidation.
The Bank Nifty, currently around 57,400, is eyeing its all-time high of 57,628; a breakout above this level could open the path to 58,000. SBI, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra continue to exhibit strong earnings resilience amidst Q2 FY26 results.
Sectoral Landscape: Performance Snapshot
- Banking & Financials: Remain market leaders; private banks fuelled the rally. Positive news in asset quality and retail loan disbursements augur well for Q3.
- IT Sector: On revival mode after Q2 earnings from Infosys, Wipro, and LTIMindtree showed mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion due to AI-driven services.
- FMCG: Stocks like ITC and Nestle gained as defensive bets amid global uncertainty.
- Pharma: Moderate but steady growth; stock-specific rallies seen in Biocon and Sun Pharma after key announcements.
- Energy: Mixed momentum due to oil price volatility; Reliance Industries remains a key watch for earnings-linked movement.
Top 10 Stocks to Buy (October 17, 2025)
| Rank | Stock | Sector | Rationale | Target Price (₹) |
| 1 | Reliance Industries | Energy & Retail | Strong retail earnings, continued margin expansion in Jio Financial | 3,100 |
| 2 | ICICI Bank | Banking | Superior ROE, digital growth, strong Q2 results | 1,250 |
| 3 | HCL Technologies | IT | AI-driven growth, strong deal pipeline | 1,760 |
| 4 | Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) | Defence | ₹1.3 Lakh Cr order book, Make in India boost | 5,600 |
| 5 | ITC Ltd. | FMCG | Margin expansion across verticals, stable cash flow | 545 |
| 6 | Apollo Hospitals | Healthcare | Strong revenue growth from Apollo 24×7 | 7,000 |
| 7 | KEI Industries | Capital Goods | Benefiting from infra and EV cables demand | 4,850 |
| 8 | Suzlon Energy | Renewable | Low valuation PEG <1, strong order inflows | 55 |
| 9 | HAL | Defence | Long-term structural play, export push | 5,600 |
| 10 | Godrej Industries | Conglomerate | Recent ₹409 crore capital infusion to Godrej Capital | 800 |
Top 10 Gainers and Losers (October 17, 2025, Pre-market)
Here are the Top 10 Gainers and Losers in the Indian stock market pre-market session for Friday, 17 October 2025, based on the latest data from NSE India and Moneycontrol.
Top 10 Gainers (Pre-Market, October 17, 2025)
| Rank | Stock | Sector | % Change | Key Highlights |
| 1 | MASK INVEST | Financial Services | +20.00% | Strong breakout after block deal; renewed FII interest |
| 2 | GLOBAL VECTRA HELICORP | Transport & Logistics | +20.00% | Defence and aviation order inflows push demand |
| 3 | SHARE INDIA SECURITIES | Brokerage | +20.00% | Surges on high trading volumes and Q2 profit jump |
| 4 | SAMBHAAV MEDIA | Media & Publishing | +20.00% | Micro-cap momentum ahead of results season |
| 5 | HYBRID FINCAP | Finance | +19.99% | Strong momentum in small-cap financials |
| 6 | GUJARAT RAFFIA | Industrial | +19.99% | Low-float stock with speculative buying |
| 7 | NELCAST LTD | Engineering | +17.31% | Bullish post-earnings, auto component uptick |
| 8 | BLS INTERNATIONAL | Services | +14.77% | Rising travel visa processing demand |
| 9 | HUHTAMAKI INDIA | Packaging | +12.73% | Improving margins, FMCG supply uptick |
| 10 | WAAREE RENEWABLE TECH | Renewable Energy | +10.31% | Solar demand push with new project wins |
Top 10 Losers (Pre-Market, October 17, 2025)
| Rank | Stock | Sector | % Change | Key Notes |
| 1 | MASTER TRADERS | Financials | -10.97% | Sharp correction after recent rally |
| 2 | 3I INFO RETAIL | IT & Services | -8.78% | Weak results outlook, profit-taking |
| 3 | EMKAY SILVER ETF | Commodities | -8.48% | Silver-linked ETFs fall as global metal prices dip |
| 4 | MOSILVER | Commodities | -8.34% | Silver correction continues amid global uncertainty |
| 5 | GROWW SILVER ETF | ETF/Commodity | -8.21% | Reversal after commodity rally |
| 6 | GMBREW | Breweries & Distilleries | -7.50% | Weak Q2 premium beer sales impact |
| 7 | TATA SILVER | Commodities | -7.50% | Follow-through selling in precious metals |
| 8 | AXIS SILVER ETF | Finance/Commodities | -7.43% | Commodities pressures weigh on NAVs |
| 9 | HDFC SILVER ETF | ETF | -7.26% | Profit booking across investment metals |
| 10 | SBI SILVER ETF | Finance | -7.01% | Sector-wide correction movement |
Market Risks and Opportunities
Key Positives
- Multi-sector earnings momentum led by IT and banking.
- Robust FPI inflows and stable rupee at ₹87.83/USD.
- GDP growth above global peers with disinflation benefiting consumption.
Risks to Watch
- Global slowdown pressures amid US-China trade tensions.
- Elevated valuations: Nifty’s P/E ratio near 26x trailing EPS.
- Weakness in midcaps and profit-booking in overbought segments.
Short-Term Portfolio Strategy
A balanced portfolio for late October 2025 should maintain sectoral diversification across defensives, cyclicals, and high-growth themes:
- Banking & Financials (25%): ICICI Bank, Kotak, HDFC Bank
- IT & Digital (20%): Infosys, HCL Tech, LTIMindtree
- Consumer & FMCG (20%): ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Titan
- Energy & Infra (20%): Reliance, ONGC, L&T
- Healthcare & Pharma (15%): Apollo Hospitals, Biocon, Sun Pharma
This allocation balances earnings visibility, dividends, and moderate risk exposure across large-cap and mid-cap segments.
Final Thought
The Indian stock market on Friday, 17 October 2025, stands at an interesting juncture — buoyed by strong Q2 results, record-low inflation, and stable economic fundamentals. The Nifty may soon challenge its all-time high, though short bouts of consolidation cannot be ruled out given global headwinds.
For investors, tempered optimism is the mantra — stay invested in quality blue-chips, maintain liquidity buffers, and use dips to accumulate strong structural stories across banking, IT, and manufacturing.
Disclaimer: This professional analysis is for informational purposes and reflects the latest publicly available data. Investment decisions should consider individual objectives and may benefit from consultation with a registered financial advisor.
