Indian Stock Market Trends Feb 18: PSU Banks +2.11%, IT Boom—Curious Bank Nifty Breakout Prediction
Will the Indian stock market soar or stumble on July 28, 2025? Uncover shocking Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty predictions, surprising top gainers like Cipla, and dramatic losers like Bajaj Finance. Dive into suspenseful support and resistance levels and exclusive stocks to watch
The Indian stock market is poised for a dynamic trading session on Monday, July 28, 2025, as investors navigate a mix of global cues, domestic earnings, and technical indicators shaping the trajectory of Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty. With recent market volatility driven by corporate earnings, global trade tensions, and macroeconomic developments, understanding support and resistance levels, top gainers and losers, and stocks to watch is crucial for traders and investors. This comprehensive analysis incorporates the latest data, and technical insights to guide you through the Indian stock market outlook for July 28, 2025.
Market Overview: Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty Trends
The Indian stock market has been under pressure recently, with the Sensex closing at 82,500.47 on July 25, 2025, down 689.81 points (-0.83%), and the Nifty 50 settling at 24,968, down 225.10 points (-0.90%). The Bank Nifty index ended at 56,283, reflecting a negative trend but showing resilience compared to broader indices.
Global cues remain mixed, with GIFT Nifty trading at 24,984 on July 25, down 106 points, signaling a potential gap-down opening for the Nifty 50. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, jumped 5% to 17.38, indicating heightened uncertainty. Despite this, optimism surrounding potential U.S.–Europe trade agreements and a U.S.–Japan trade deal has provided some relief to global markets, which could influence Indian indices.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
Technical indicators are critical for predicting market movements. Here’s a breakdown of support and resistance levels for the major indices:
- Nifty 50:
- Support: 24,750, 24,580 (100-day EMA)
- Resistance: 25,210, 25,300–25,600
- The Nifty is trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling a bearish short-term trend. The RSI at 50 (lowest in three months) suggests potential for a short-term bounce if it enters oversold territory. A breakout above 25,210 could trigger bullish momentum toward 25,600, while a break below 24,750 may lead to further declines to 24,580.
- Sensex:
- Support: 81,664, 81,983
- Resistance: 82,569, 83,337
- The Sensex is in a negative trend, with a daily closing stop-loss at 82,569. A close above this level could signal a reversal, while a drop below 81,664 may push it toward 81,000.
- Bank Nifty:
- Support: 56,275, 55,550
- Resistance: 57,000, 57,630
- The Bank Nifty is range-bound, with mixed momentum indicators. The MACD and stochastic oscillator suggest bullishness, but the RSI at 54.7 indicates neutral momentum. A breakout above 57,000 could target 58,000, while a drop below 56,275 may lead to 55,550.
Market Sentiment and Key Drivers
The Indian stock market is influenced by several factors for July 28, 2025:
- Corporate Earnings: Disappointing Q1 results from IT giants like TCS (-3.47%) and Infosys (-1%) have weighed on the Nifty IT index, which fell 1.7% in early trade. However, select banking and pharma stocks have shown resilience.
- Global Cues: Optimism over U.S.–Europe trade agreements with tariff reductions to 15% has boosted global equities. However, concerns over U.S.–China trade talks and crude oil price surges due to Russian export restrictions could dampen sentiment.
- FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers, contributing to market pressure. Sustained FII buying is needed for a recovery.
- RBI Policy Expectations: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain steady interest rates in August, with a possible cut in FY26 inflation outlook, supporting banking stocks.
- Volatility: The India VIX at 17.38 suggests high volatility, advising traders to adopt a cautious approach with strict stop-losses.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for July 28, 2025
The Nifty 50 is expected to open lower, with GIFT Nifty indicating a gap-down start. The index is likely to trade in a range of 24,800–25,300, with a bearish bias unless it decisively closes above 25,210. Traders should adopt a buy-on-dips strategy near 24,750, with a stop-loss at 24,580. A breakout above 25,300 could target 25,600, while a breakdown below 24,750 may lead to 24,580.
The Bank Nifty is showing resilience despite a bearish tilt. It is expected to trade between 56,275–57,000, with a bullish breakout possible above 57,000, targeting 58,000. Support at 56,275 is critical; a break below could lead to 55,550. Traders should monitor banking heavyweights like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank for directional cues.
Top 10 Gainers and Losers (Based on July 25, 2025 Data)
The following table lists the top 10 gainers and losers from the Nifty 50 index based on the latest available data:
| Top Gainers | % Change | Top Losers | % Change |
| Cipla | +3.17% | Bajaj Finance | -4.81% |
| SBI Life | +2.07% | Shriram Finance | -3.64% |
| Apollo Hospitals | +1.50% | IndusInd Bank | -2.64% |
| Dr. Reddy’s | +0.91% | Bajaj Auto | -2.54% |
| Sun Pharma | +0.59% | M&M | -2.54% |
| Axis Bank | +0.63% | Hero MotoCorp | -2.39% |
| Hindustan Unilever | +0.46% | Tata Motors | -2.16% |
| HDFC Life | +0.35% | Wipro | -1.93% |
| ICICI Bank | +0.30% | Tech Mahindra | -1.80% |
| Coal India | +0.25% | Reliance Industries | -1.46% |
Analysis of Gainers and Losers
- Gainers: The pharma and banking sectors outperformed, with Cipla (+3.20%) leading due领跑者 due to strong Q1 earnings and SBI Life (+1.37%) benefiting from positive insurance sector sentiment. HDFC Bank (+1.70%) gained on optimism around RBI’s easing of risk weights for NBFC financing.
- Losers: The IT and auto sectors faced heavy selling pressure. TCS (-3.47%) and Wipro (-2.62%) were hit by lackluster earnings, while M&M (-2.93%) and Hero MotoCorp (-2.74%) reflected profit-taking in auto stocks.
Top Stocks to Watch on July 28, 2025
Here are five stocks to watch for Monday, July 28, 2025, with detailed technical and fundamental analysis:
- HDFC Bank (NSE: HDFCBANK)
- Why to Watch: HDFC Bank gained 1.70% on July 25, bucking the bearish trend due to optimism over RBI’s NBFC financing policy relaxation. The stock is trading above its 50-day EMA at 1,600, with RSI at 60, indicating bullish momentum.
- Technical Levels: Support at 1,580, resistance at 1,720. A breakout above 1,720 could target 1,800.
- Fundamental Outlook: Strong Q1 results and favorable RBI policies make it a top pick for long-term investors.
- Trading Strategy: Buy on dips near 1,600 with a stop-loss at 1,580.
- Cipla (NSE: CIPLA)
- Why to Watch: Cipla surged 3.20% on July 25, driven by robust Q1 earnings and positive pharma sector sentiment. The stock is near its 52-week high of 1,532.50.
- Technical Levels: Support at 1,500, resistance at 1,550. RSI at 65 suggests room for further upside.
- Fundamental Outlook: Strong growth in domestic and export markets positions Cipla for continued outperformance.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above 1,550 for a target of 1,600, with a stop-loss at 1,500.
- TCS (NSE: TCS)
- Why to Watch: TCS fell 3.47% due to disappointing Q1 earnings, but the stock is near its 100-day EMA at 3,900, offering a potential buying opportunity.
- Technical Levels: Support at 3,850, resistance at 4,000. RSI at 45 indicates oversold conditions.
- Fundamental Outlook: Despite short-term weakness, TCS remains a leader in IT services with long-term growth potential.
- Trading Strategy: Buy near 3,850 with a stop-loss at 3,800, targeting 4,100.
- Reliance Industries (NSE: RELIANCE)
- Why to Watch: Reliance declined 1.46% but is trading near its 200-day EMA at 1,350, with RSI at 48, suggesting a potential reversal.
- Technical Levels: Support at 1,340, resistance at 1,400. A breakout above 1,400 could target 1,450.
- Fundamental Outlook: Diversified revenue streams and strong Q1 performance make it a stable long-term pick.
- Trading Strategy: Buy on dips near 1,340 with a stop-loss at 1,320.
- SBI (NSE: SBIN)
- Why to Watch: SBI gained 0.63% on July 25, supported by positive banking sector sentiment. The stock is above its 50-day EMA at 800.
- Technical Levels: Support at 790, resistance at 850. RSI at 58 indicates neutral momentum.
- Fundamental Outlook: Strong loan growth and improving asset quality make SBI a top banking stock.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above 820 for a target of 870, with a stop-loss at 790.
Trading Strategies for July 28, 2025
- Intraday Trading:
- Nifty 50: Buy near 24,750 with a stop-loss at 24,700, targeting 25,000. Sell below 24,750 with a stop-loss at 24,800, targeting 24,580.
- Bank Nifty: Buy above 56,500 with a stop-loss at 56,275, targeting 57,000. Sell below 56,275 with a stop-loss at 56,500, targeting 55,550.
- Swing Trading:
- Focus on HDFC Bank and Cipla for bullish setups near support levels. Use RSI and EMA crossovers to confirm entries.
- For bearish setups, monitor TCS and Reliance for breakdowns below key supports with strict stop-losses.
- Risk Management:
- Maintain a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio for all trades.
- Use trailing stop-losses to lock in profits during volatile sessions.
- Limit position size to 1–2% of capital to manage volatility risks.
Latest News Impacting the Market
- U.S.–Europe Trade Deal: Optimism over tariff reductions to 15% has lifted global markets, potentially supporting Indian exporters like Cipla.
- Crude Oil Surge: Rising oil prices due to Russian export restrictions could pressure oil & gas stocks like Reliance.
- RBI Policy: Expectations of steady rates and a possible FY26 inflation outlook cut could bolster Bank Nifty stocks like SBI and HDFC Bank.
- FII Selling: Continued FII outflows may cap upside in Sensex and Nifty 50 unless reversed.
Final Thought
The Indian stock market on July 28, 2025, is likely to open cautiously due to mixed global cues and recent selling pressure. Nifty 50 and Sensex are in a bearish short-term trend, with key supports at 24,750 and 81,664, respectively. Bank Nifty shows resilience, with a potential breakout above 57,000. Traders should focus on support and resistance levels, monitor top gainers like Cipla and HDFC Bank, and watch top losers like TCS for reversal opportunities. Stocks like HDFC Bank, Cipla, TCS, Reliance, and SBI are key picks to watch, with well-defined trading strategies to navigate volatility.
For the latest Indian stock market predictions, technical analysis, and investment strategies, stay updated with trusted sources like 5paisa, Moneycontrol, and ET Now. Always conduct thorough research and consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing.
