Indian Stock Market Trends: Monday Morning Briefing
Expert insights on Indian stock market trends for July 1, 2025! Get Nifty 50, Bank Nifty predictions, support-resistance levels, top gainers/losers, and stocks to watch. Stay ahead with SEO-optimized trading strategies and the latest market data for Sensex, Nifty, and more!
The Indian stock market has been a rollercoaster of volatility and opportunity, with indices like the Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty driving investor sentiment. As we step into July 1, 2025, traders and investors are keenly observing key technical levels, sectoral trends, and macroeconomic cues to navigate the market. This blog post provides a comprehensive analysis of the Indian stock market, focusing on trading strategies, support and resistance levels, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty predictions, top gainers and losers, and stocks to watch for the trading session on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. With the latest data, this guide aims to empower you with actionable insights to stay ahead in the market.
Indian Stock Market Overview: What Happened on June 30, 2025?
The Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, closed lower on June 30, 2025, snapping a four-day rally as profit-booking emerged, particularly in banking stocks. According to market updates, the Sensex fell 452.44 points (0.54%) to close at 83,606.46, while the Nifty 50 shed 152 points to end at 25,517. The Bank Nifty index also declined by 131.15 points (0.23%) to settle at 57,312.75, despite touching a record high of 57,614.50 earlier in the session. The correction was driven by selling pressure in private sector banks, with HDFC Bank (-0.74%), ICICI Bank (-1.18%), Axis Bank (-2.13%), and Kotak Mahindra Bank (-2.17%) being key laggards. However, PSU banks outperformed, with the Nifty PSU Bank index surging 2.66%, led by SBI (+1.79%) and other state-owned banks.
Despite the bearish close, the broader market showed resilience, with midcap and smallcap indices ending in positive territory. The market breadth remained favorable, with an advance-decline ratio of 8:4 for Bank Nifty, indicating selective buying interest. Global cues were mixed, with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing crude oil prices to a five-month high, adding caution to market sentiment. Meanwhile, FIIs were net buyers with inflows of ₹1,397 crore, while DIIs sold ₹588 crore worth of equities, reflecting divergent institutional strategies.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for July 1, 2025
Nifty 50: Key Levels to Watch
The Nifty 50 is currently in a positive trend but faced profit-taking after hitting overbought levels on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The index closed below 25,600, signaling short-term weakness. Here are the key support and resistance levels for July 1, 2025:
- Support Levels: 25,235 and 25,060. A breakdown below 25,060 could trigger a decline toward 24,980, a critical level for sustaining bullish momentum.
- Resistance Levels: 25,799 and 25,974. A decisive breakout above 25,799 could push the index toward 26,000, a psychological resistance level.
Trading Strategy: The Nifty 50 is trading above its 21-day and 55-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating sustained bullish momentum. Traders should adopt a buy-on-dip strategy near 25,235–25,060, with a stop-loss below 25,000 to manage risk. A breakout above 25,799 could signal a rally toward 26,000, making it a key level for intraday traders.
Bank Nifty: Key Levels to Watch
The Bank Nifty index remains in a bullish trend, supported by its position above the 21-day EMA and a recent high of 57,614.50. However, profit-booking in private banks capped gains. Key levels for July 1, 2025 include:
- Support Levels: 57,100–57,000 (immediate support) and 56,500 (strong support). These levels are likely to attract buying interest.
- Resistance Levels: 58,000 (near-term resistance) and 58,600 (next target). A clean breakout above 58,000 could signal further upside.
Trading Strategy: The Bank Nifty is attempting a breakout above the 57,500 psychological level. Traders should monitor price action near 57,100 for dip-buying opportunities, with a stop-loss below 56,500. A sustained move above 58,000 could open the path to 58,600, making it a high-probability target for swing traders.
Sensex: Key Levels to Watch
The Sensex is also in a positive trend, with a daily closing stop-loss at 83,050. Key levels for July 1, 2025 are:
- Support Levels: 83,050 and 82,500. A close below 83,050 could signal a short-term bearish shift.
- Resistance Levels: 84,500 and 85,000. A breakout above 84,500 could drive the index toward a new all-time high.
Trading Strategy: Maintain long positions with a stop-loss at 83,050. Fresh short positions can be initiated only if the Sensex closes below this level.
Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Predictions for July 1, 2025
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty 50 is expected to open flat to positive, with Gift Nifty trading at 25,770, indicating a premium of nearly 20 points from the previous close. The index’s bullish momentum remains intact, supported by a Marubozu candlestick pattern on the weekly chart and positive MACD and RSI signals. However, the recent correction suggests caution. If the index sustains above 25,600, it could rally toward 25,880–26,000. A fall below 25,600 may lead to a test of 25,378 or 25,178. Traders should watch FII and DII flows, as sustained FII buying could fuel further upside.
Bank Nifty Prediction
The Bank Nifty is poised for a sideways to bullish session, with a trading range of 57,000–58,000. The index’s resilience, despite private bank underperformance, is bolstered by PSU bank strength. A breakout above 58,000 could trigger a rally toward 58,600, while a dip to 57,100–57,000 offers a buying opportunity. The 14-period RSI on the daily chart shows a buy signal, reinforcing the positive bias. Traders should monitor HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank for directional cues, as they heavily influence the index.
Top 10 Gainers and Losers on June 30, 2025
The Indian stock market saw mixed performances on June 30, 2025, with selective buying in PSU banks, realty, and midcap/smallcap stocks, while private banks and heavyweights dragged the indices lower. Below is a table of the top 10 gainers and losers from the Sensex and Nifty 50 constituents, based on intraday performance:
Top Gainers
| Stock | Index | CMP (₹) | Change (%) | Volume |
| Trent | Sensex | 5,500 | +3.50% | 1.2M |
| SBI | Sensex/Nifty | 850 | +1.79% | 15.5M |
| IndusInd Bank | Sensex/Nifty | 1,450 | +1.78% | 3.8M |
| BEL | Sensex | 310 | +1.50% | 2.5M |
| Adani Ports | Sensex/Nifty | 1,400 | +1.20% | 2.1M |
| Titan | Sensex/Nifty | 3,400 | +0.59% | 1.0M |
| L&T | Sensex/Nifty | 3,600 | +0.50% | 0.8M |
| HUL | Sensex/Nifty | 2,500 | +0.45% | 0.9M |
| Bajaj Finserv | Sensex | 1,600 | +0.40% | 0.7M |
| Eternal | Sensex | 1,200 | +0.35% | 0.6M |
Top Losers
| Stock | Index | CMP (₹) | Change (%) | Volume |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | Sensex/Nifty | 1,800 | -2.17% | 2.3M |
| Axis Bank | Sensex/Nifty | 1,200 | -2.13% | 3.5M |
| ONGC | Nifty | 270 | -1.79% | 4.0M |
| Sun Pharma | Nifty | 1,500 | -1.13% | 1.8M |
| UltraTech Cement | Sensex/Nifty | 11,000 | -1.08% | 0.5M |
| Reliance Industries | Sensex/Nifty | 2,900 | -1.02% | 5.2M |
| Tata Motors | Sensex/Nifty | 950 | -0.95% | 6.0M |
| ICICI Bank | Sensex/Nifty | 1,150 | -1.18% | 4.5M |
| HDFC Bank | Sensex/Nifty | 1,600 | -0.74% | 6.8M |
| Airtel | Sensex/Nifty | 1,400 | -0.70% | 2.0M |
Note: CMP and volume data are indicative and based on market updates from June 30, 2025.
Top Stocks to Watch on July 1, 2025: Detailed Analysis
1. State Bank of India (SBI)
- Sector: PSU Banking
- Why to Watch: SBI was among the top gainers on June 30, rising 1.79% due to optimism around RBI’s easing of risk weights for NBFC financing, which boosts PSU bank profitability. The stock is trading above its 200-day EMA, signaling strong bullish momentum.
- Technical Outlook: Support at ₹820, resistance at ₹870. A breakout above ₹870 could target ₹900.
- Trading Strategy: Buy on dips near ₹820 with a stop-loss at ₹800. Monitor Nifty PSU Bank index for sectoral momentum.
- Fundamental Trigger: Strong loan growth and improving asset quality make SBI a top pick.
2. Trent
- Sector: Retail
- Why to Watch: Trent surged 3.50% on June 30, driven by strong consumer demand and expansion in its retail network. The stock is a standout in the Sensex pack.
- Technical Outlook: Support at ₹5,300, resistance at ₹5,600. The stock is in an ascending channel, indicating further upside potential.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above ₹5,500 with a target of ₹5,700 and a stop-loss at ₹5,400.
- Fundamental Trigger: Robust Q1 FY26 earnings expectations and store expansion plans.
3. Kotak Mahindra Bank
- Sector: Private Banking
- Why to Watch: Despite being a top loser (-2.17%) on June 30, Kotak Mahindra Bank is near its key support zone of ₹1,750–1,780, making it a candidate for a bounce-back.
- Technical Outlook: Resistance at ₹1,850, support at ₹1,750. The RSI is nearing oversold levels, hinting at a potential reversal.
- Trading Strategy: Buy near ₹1,750 with a stop-loss at ₹1,730 and a target of ₹1,850.
- Fundamental Trigger: Strong deposit growth and digital banking initiatives.
4. Reliance Industries
- Sector: Conglomerate
- Why to Watch: Reliance fell 1.02% on June 30, contributing significantly to the Sensex and Nifty declines. As an index heavyweight, its movement dictates market direction.
- Technical Outlook: Support at ₹2,850, resistance at ₹3,000. A hold above ₹2,850 could stabilize the broader market.
- Trading Strategy: Monitor for a bounce near ₹2,850 with a stop-loss at ₹2,800 and a target of ₹2,950.
- Fundamental Trigger: Jio’s subscriber addition (27 lakh in May) and energy segment performance.
5. Adani Ports
- Sector: Infrastructure
- Why to Watch: Adani Ports gained 1.20% on June 30, supported by strong cargo volume growth and infrastructure development.
- Technical Outlook: Support at ₹1,350, resistance at ₹1,450. The stock is trading above its 50-day EMA, indicating bullish sentiment.
- Trading Strategy: Buy above ₹1,400 with a target of ₹1,500 and a stop-loss at ₹1,350.
- Fundamental Trigger: Expansion in port capacity and logistics network.
Sectoral Outlook for July 1, 2025
PSU Banks
The Nifty PSU Bank index outperformed with a 2.66% gain, driven by optimism around regulatory easing and strong loan growth. Stocks like SBI, PNB, and Bank of Baroda are likely to remain in focus. Trading Tip: Focus on dip-buying opportunities near support levels, with a bullish bias as long as the index holds above 7,500.
Private Banks
Private banks underperformed, with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank dragging the Bank Nifty lower. However, these stocks are near key support levels, making them attractive for contrarian traders. Trading Tip: Watch for reversal signals near support zones, with stop-losses to manage downside risk.
Auto and Realty
The auto sector led gains on June 18, rising over 1%, and is expected to remain strong due to robust domestic demand. Realty also showed strength, supported by favorable monsoon forecasts and infrastructure spending. Trading Tip: Stocks like Tata Motors and DLF are worth monitoring for breakout trades.
Chemicals
The chemical sector is gaining traction due to global developments, such as the U.S. suspending tariffs on India until July 9, 2025, and rising refrigerant gas prices. Stocks like Navin Fluorine are poised for gains. Trading Tip: Buy on pullbacks with a focus on export-oriented companies.
Trading Strategies for July 1, 2025
- Intraday Trading:
- Nifty 50: Buy above 25,655 for targets of 25,700–25,880. Sell below 25,600 for targets of 25,378–25,178. Use a 10-minute chart for confirmation.
- Bank Nifty: Buy above 57,500 for targets of 58,000–58,600. Sell below 57,100 for targets of 56,500. Monitor RSI for overbought/oversold signals.
- Swing Trading:
- Focus on PSU banks and midcap/smallcap stocks for multi-day trades, given their outperformance. Set stop-losses below key support levels to manage volatility.
- Options Trading:
- Nifty 50: Buy 25,600 CE if the index sustains above 25,655. Buy 25,600 PE if it falls below 25,600. Use spreads to manage high India VIX levels.
- Bank Nifty: Buy 57,500 CE above 57,500 or 57,000 PE below 57,100. Avoid tight ranges to minimize losses from time decay.
- Risk Management:
- Use stop-losses for all trades to limit downside risk.
- Avoid overtrading on volatile days, especially with global uncertainties like Middle East tensions impacting crude oil prices.
- Allocate no more than 2–3% of capital per trade to manage exposure.
Macro Factors Influencing the Market
- Global Cues: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices could pressure energy and oil & gas stocks. Monitor Brent crude levels, as a sustained rise above $75/barrel could impact market sentiment.
- FII and DII Flows: FIIs turned net buyers on June 30, injecting ₹1,397 crore, while DIIs sold ₹588 crore. Sustained FII buying could support a rally, especially in large-cap stocks.
- Currency Movements: The Indian rupee traded marginally lower at 85.53 per dollar, reflecting cautious sentiment. A weaker rupee could benefit IT and export-oriented sectors like chemicals.
- Economic Data: The May IIP growth of 1.2% (down from 2.6% MoM) indicates a slowdown in industrial activity. Investors should watch upcoming GST collection and PMI data for further cues.
Navigating the Indian Stock Market on July 1, 2025
The Indian stock market is at a critical juncture, with Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty showing resilience despite profit-booking. The Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open flat to positive, with key levels of 25,600 and 58,000 acting as pivotal points for intraday and swing traders. PSU banks, auto, and realty sectors are likely to outperform, while private banks may offer contrarian opportunities near support levels. Stocks like SBI, Trent, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, and Adani Ports are top picks to watch, supported by strong technical and fundamental triggers.
Traders should adopt disciplined trading strategies, leveraging support and resistance levels, and stay updated with FII/DII flows and global cues. With the latest market data, this analysis equips you to make informed decisions in the dynamic Indian stock market. Always consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions, and trade with strict risk management to maximize returns.
Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing.
