Indian Stock Market Trends On Monday 29, September 2025: Nifty50, Bank Nifty Outlook, and Top Stock Picks
Unlock the latest secrets of the Indian stock market! Will Sensex and Nifty 50 rebound or plunge further this week? Dive into fresh 2025 data, sector surprises, and must-watch stocks that could shock even seasoned investors. Can new economic triggers, RBI decisions, and top gainers flip market fortunes on Monday? Discover the suspense and unexpected turns shaping BSE, NSE, and Nifty Bank – this one post reveals everything you should watch out for now.
As the Indian stock market opens on Monday, 29th September 2025, investors and traders are keenly watching major indices like the BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty to gauge near-term directions and discover potential winning stocks. This post delivers a ground-level perspective on the latest market trends, critical macroeconomic factors, and up-to-date data for informed investing. Drawing from real-time sources—including NSE/BSE feeds, RBI and quarterly reports, and top financial outlets—this analysis will help both retail and institutional investors navigate the Indian equity landscape this week, with actionable recommendations across sectors rooted in robust reasoning and risk assessments.
Indian Stock Market Overview: 29 September 2025
Sensex, Nifty 50, and Nifty Bank Snapshot
The stock market enters the week on a cautious but hopeful note, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 witnessing significant volatility in recent sessions. On Friday, Nifty 50 closed at 24,654.7, down 236.15 points (-0.95%) while Sensex ended at 80,426.46, down 733 points (-0.9%). The Nifty Bank index mirrored the trend, closing deep in the red below key moving averages, highlighting a high volatility environment.
| Index | Closing Value | % Change | Sentiment |
| Sensex | 80,426.46 | -0.9% | Bearish, 26/30 down |
| Nifty 50 | 24,654.7 | -0.95% | Bearish, 44/50 down |
| Bank Nifty | 54,311-54,650 | -1.0% | High volatility, weak |
The main draggers were blue-chip banking names and pharma exporters amid US tariff concerns, while select stocks such as Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Tata Motors, ITC, and Eicher Motors managed to outperform the indices.
Market Breadth and Technical Levels
Nifty and Sensex both experienced heavy selling pressure, with technical indicators signaling oversold territory (RSI near 40 for Nifty). Support levels for Nifty are seen around 24,600—falling below this could shift the focus to 24,400–24,300, while resistance is placed near 24,750–24,900 for short-term recovery attempts.
Bank Nifty’s immediate resistance rests at 54,716, 55,022, and 55,275, with support at 54,318, 54,075, and 53,809. The index’s weakness below all major EMAs suggests caution in banking stocks in the near term.
Key Economic Indicators Affecting the Markets
India’s GDP is projected strong for FY2025, with most reliable sources pointing to a growth rate of approximately 6.5%, outperforming many global peers. The last quarter posted even sharper expansion, helped by robust consumption, infrastructure spending, and services sector growth.
Inflation (CPI)
August 2025 CPI inflation ticked up to 2.07% from July’s 1.61%, driven by higher food and fuel prices, but remains well below historical averages and RBI’s tolerance band. The RBI expects moderate inflation, revising its forecasts down to 3.1% for FY26.
The policy repo rate currently stands at 6.5%, unchanged since the previous MPC meet, with RBI maintaining its stance to support growth while keeping a watch on inflation risks. Continued monetary stability bodes well for equities, though any hawkish shifts at future meetings could alter sentiment in rate-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate.
Unemployment
National unemployment improved to 5.1% in August, down from 5.2% in July. Urban unemployment for males eased to 5.9% and rural unemployment hit its lowest at 4.5%. Female workforce participation also rose, and white-collar, tech, and startup sectors led hiring momentum.
Major News Impacting the Stock Market
- US tariffs on Indian pharma exports impacted major pharma stocks, causing a sector-wide slide.
- Continued FPI outflows have led to underperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Strong US market cues, cooling inflation, and positive hiring data could support recovery in select Indian sectors.
- RBI’s stable interest rate stance and improving jobs outlook offer macro support for consumption-based and domestic-oriented stocks.
Sector Performance: Which Sectors to Focus On
IT
Facing margin pressures but strong hiring, with AI/ML roles surging by over 50%. Sector remained volatile due to export risk and US tariffs, but long-term demand is resilient for top software exporters.
Banking
Heavyweights faced selling; most banks closed lower. Bank Nifty is in technical correction territory, making select PSUs and high-quality private banks attractive for medium-term accumulation on dips.
Pharmaceuticals
Global trade tensions due to US tariffs adversely affected pharma exporters. Stick to domestic-focused pharma leaders for stability.
Consumer Goods
Steady growth, robust dividend payers like ITC continue to outperform amid global uncertainty.
Infrastructure & Capital Goods
L&T stands out for strong earnings momentum and structural demand uptick. EPC, capital goods, and infra are bright spots due to government spending.
Top 10 Stocks to Buy (NSE/BSE): Analysis and Reasoning
Below are the top 10 stocks to consider for purchase this week, based on performance, valuation, sector strength, and recent earnings/news. Each choice includes reasoning and an overall risk assessment.
| Stock Name | Sector | Rationale & Metrics | Risk Level |
| Larsen & Toubro (L&T) | Capital Goods | Strong order book, infra push, outperformed in weak markets (LTP: ₹3,729.50, Gain: 2.34%). Valuation remains reasonable for growth. | Moderate |
| Tata Motors | Auto | Rising EV adoption, robust quarterly earnings, defensive in volatility. | Moderate |
| ITC | FMCG | Steady dividends, resilience in downturns, strong consumer play. | Low |
| Eicher Motors | Auto | Harley JV boost, consistent earnings, margin discipline. | Moderate |
| Reliance Industries | Conglomerate | Oil-to-chemicals resilience, retail growth, stable performance. | Low |
| NTPC | Utilities | Clean energy pivot, breakout pattern, potential 15-20% upside. Latest Close: ₹347. | Moderate |
| Bank of Baroda | Banking | Trendline breakout, public sector bank rally, outperformed peers. Target ₹266. | Moderate |
| Aadhar Housing Finance | NBFC | Housing finance under spotlight, good upside triggers, LCP ₹539. | Moderate |
| HCL Technologies | IT | Stable earnings, AI focus, growth visibility. | Moderate |
| Titan Company | Consumer Goods | Strong retail expansion, jewelry division growth, steady margins. | Moderate |
Top 5 Gainers and Losers (Nifty 50, 29 September 2025)
| Gainers | Last Traded | % Gain |
| Larsen & Toubro Ltd. | ₹3,729.50 | 2.34% |
| Tata Motors Ltd. | ₹672.90 | 1.29% |
| ITC Ltd. | ₹405.10 | 1.25% |
| Eicher Motors Ltd. | ₹7,047.00 | 0.87% |
| Reliance Industries Ltd. | ₹1,377.60 | 0.38% |
| Losers | Last Traded | % Loss |
| Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. | ₹3,396.50 | -3.78% |
| IndusInd Bank Ltd. | ₹712.75 | -3.78% |
| Eternal Ltd. | ₹321.00 | -3.39% |
| Tata Steel Ltd. | ₹167.40 | -2.89% |
| Bajaj Finance Ltd. | ₹985.10 | -2.73% |
Risk Assessment and Diversified Portfolio Suggestion
With volatility high and macro uncertainty present, a diversified portfolio is prudent:
- 30% large-cap core (L&T, ITC, Reliance)
- 25% financials (Bank of Baroda, Aadhar HFC, growth-stage NBFCs)
- 15% consumer/retail (Titan, Eicher Motors)
- 15% IT/software (HCL Technologies, selective export plays)
- 15% utilities/energy (NTPC, clean energy)
Cautious exposure to banks and pharma, with aggressive pivots only after sustained uptrend confirmation, is suggested. Defensive sectors (FMCG, utilities) offer resilience. Investors should watch out for international developments and policy shifts that could impact select sectors.
Final Thought: What to Expect Next
Monday’s session will likely start positive, buoyed by better US cues and improving domestic macro data, but investors should stay nimble as FPI outflows and sector pressures continue to pose risks. The market may seek stability near key support zones before attempting a short-term technical rebound, especially if inflation remains low and policy rates are stable.
Sticking to diversified, fundamentally strong stocks with earnings momentum and sector tailwinds is the best way to weather current volatility. Keep monitoring RBI signals and global trends for early signs of market turnaround—and don’t forget to rebalance portfolios regularly as the situation evolves.
